Turf Show Times
Sam Darnold likely to part from Vikings but had an objectively better season than Matthew Stafford
Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford finished the 2024 season with very similar production profiles. Both head into the offseason with uncertain futures. It’s likely that Darnold is out in Minnesota; therefore, the Los Angeles Rams should also carefully evaluate Stafford’s future with the team.
If Sam Darnold isn’t good enough for the Minnesota Vikings, then Stafford isn’t good enough for Sean McVay and the Rams.
Darnold: Surprised the NFL by maintaining stellar production until Week 18 versus the Detroit Lions and in the wildcard playoff round against the Rams. The Vikings drafted former Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy shortly after signing Darnold. Would the Vikings be best-served investing salary cap resources into setting McCarthy up for success versus giving Darnold a costly contract extension? To complicate matters further, Minnesota doesn’t have much draft capital after trading up for each of McCarthy and EDGE Dallas Turner in the first round a year ago.
Stafford: It’s clear that Stafford regressed statistically from what may have been his best career season in 2023. Some blame deservedly should go to the offensive line, who battled injuries in the early going before finding their footing late into the year. Still, Stafford had difficulties navigating muddied pockets and keeping the ball out of harm’s way. His ability to manufacture big plays with his arm also took a step back from last season. What more does he have left in the tank? Do the Rams really want to deal with retirement rumors each offseason for the foreseeable future, or is it time to rip the band-aid off and find a quarterback that can grow with an otherwise young roster?
Darnold:
66.0% completion for 4,564 yards, 36 TD’s, and 13 INT’s
PFF: 76.5% adjusted completion, 34 big-time throws (5.4%), 27 turnover-worthy plays (3.7%), 9.3 ADOT, 29 scrambles
Stafford:
65.5% completion for 4,295 yards, 24 TD’s, and 8 INT’s
PFF: 73.2% adjusted completion, 26 big-time throws (4.2%), 25 turnover-worthy plays (3.7%), 8.3 ADOT, 4 scrambles
While the box score looks impressive for Stafford because he only threw eight interceptions, he benefitted from a high degree of turnover luck this year.
Darnold led the NFL with 27 turnover-worthy plays. Stafford was second with 25. Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield were third with 24, and they each threw 16 interceptions this season.
2023:
63.0% completion for 4,332 yards, 26 TD’s, and 11 INT’s
74.3% adjusted completion, 37 big-time throws (6.3%), 12 turnover-worthy plays (1.9%), 8.2 ADOT, 14 scrambles
Stafford clearly saw regression from 2023 to 2024 in both his ability to manufacture big-time throws (BTT) and keep the ball out of harm’s way (TWP).
His BTT rate decreased 33% to 4.2%, which is the worst mark of his career outside of the 2010, 2015, 2016, and 2009 seasons. Stafford’s TWP percentage increased by 95% which was the highest...
