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A palatable extension for Kyren Williams falls in the Joe Mixon to David Montgomery range
Much of the offseason talk so far for the Los Angeles Rams has surrounded Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford. Perhaps the third biggest story line is a potential contract extension for running back Kyren Williams.
While in some ways the Rams are still recovering from their hang over resulting from Todd Gurley’s market resetting contract, they may choose to hitch their wagon to Williams beyond 2025.
Let’s be clear. It would not be smart money for Los Angeles to pay Williams towards the top of the market. Williams is also unlikely to command such a deal, though his representation may be able to build a case that he belongs in the upper echelon based on stats and production.
If the Rams do decide to extend Williams this offseason, these are similar contracts that I would be OK using as a model and adjusting for inflation:
These are the five NFL running backs that make more than $10M on an average annual basis:
Kamara seems to be the outlier of this group, as he’s the only player to not holdout or hit the open market in some fashion (free agency or trade). Kamara is also the only back in this list on the wrong side of age 30, though McCaffrey is not far behind at 29.
Barkley and Jacobs received large free agent deals. Taylor was a camp holdout that forced the Colts’ hand when compensation for running backs was a high-profile conversation. McCaffrey commanded premium draft capital when the 49ers acquired him from the Carolina Panthers, though he played sparingly this year after receiving an extension through 2027 last offseason.
The Rams would be wise to draw the line after the top five and not pay Williams much more than $10M annually. A better comparison for him in terms of both leverage and talent would be the following group:
It may be a difficult argument versus Williams’ representation to pin him in this range; however, in terms of talent and leverage, Williams is more similar to this group of running backs that all make between $8-10M per year.
Only Henry’s deal on this list expires after the 2025 season. The rest are signed through at least 2027 on relatively recent contracts. There isn’t a case of a player signing an extension and then the market outpacing their pay, which makes it reasonable to assume that the Rams can keep...
