Cat Scratch Reader
As the Panthers look to reverse their fortunes in 2025 they’ll be doing so virtually no contributions from their last six second round picks.
The Carolina Panthers are currently one full year into what could be called “Rebuild 3.0” under new head coach Dave Canales.
Rebuild 1.0 began in 2020 with the hiring of former college coach Matt Rhule. Rebuild 2.0 kicked off in 2023 after Rhule was fired and replaced by experienced NFL head coach Frank Reich, a bold new strategy that lasted all of 11 games before Reich was summarily dismissed.
Yes, NFL rebuilds need competent, consistent coaching.
But rebuilds also need the front office to nail early-round picks who can deliver outsized impact on dirt-cheap rookie contracts, then sign long-term extensions to give continuity on the field and an identity in the locker room.
While the Panthers have an excellent track record with landing quality first round picks in recent years, the same can’t be said when it comes to second round selections. In fact, going back to 2019, the Carolina Panthers will enter the 2025 season getting virtually zero production from their last six second round picks.
Few things derail a rebuild like watching a half dozen second round picks yield little short-term value, then unceremoniously disappear into the NFL ether.
The value of second round picks
Before looking at the individual second round picks the Panthers have made in recent years, it’s important to take a step back and be reminded of the value of those picks.
First, the quality of players available between No. 33 and No. 64 is fantastic. Scouting the top 64 players in a draft shouldn’t be rocket science.
At a high level, there are roughly six offensive groups to scout (QB, RB, WR, TE, OT, IOL) and about five defensive groups (DT, DE, LB, CB, S), so 11 “groups” total. If these 11 “groups” are drafted at roughly equal rates in the first round, this means that in the second round something like the third through sixth best prospects from each group should still available!
Good NFL talent evaluators should be able to identify a solid “Top 5” list for each position group and a host of them will still be available in the second round. If front offices aren’t consistently landing solid long-term starters in Round 2, something’s wrong.
And not only is the talent abundant in the second round, the contracts are absolutely delicious.
Per Spotrac, the No. 33 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft will receive a 4-year, $10.8 million contract, or an average of $2.7 million per year. The No. 64 pick, the last selection in the second round, will sign a 4-year, $6.8 million deal, or $1.7 million per season. Those salaries are essentially rounding errors against a 2025 salary cap that will likely fall somewhere between $265-$275 million.
If I was an NFL GM, I would trade down a couple of spots every year in the first round to acquire more second round picks....
