Acme Packing Company
As I’ve mentioned previously, one of the stats I’ve been tracking this season is something I’ve been calling Explosive +/-. Basically, it’s looking at how many explosive plays you’re creating on offense vs. how many you’re giving up on defense. Per a study by Brian Billick, teams that have had a +2 Explosive +/- in a game have won that game 80%-85% of the time. So one thing I like to do is see how teams have generated explosive plays against the Green Bay Packers’ next opponent (the Chicago Bears) and find plays that fit the Packers’ offense.
Explosives are defined as passes that gain 16+ yards or runs that gain 12+ yards.
This season, the Packers lead the league in Explosive +/- at +2.4 (just barely holding off the Broncos at +2.3). The Bears are 7th at +1.3. What’s interesting is what’s underneath. The Packers are generating 0.92 fewer offensive explosive plays per game, while giving up 2.08 fewer explosive plays on defense. So the Packers have been slightly less explosive, while the defense has been significantly better at suppressing explosive plays.
The other thing to note is the yardage. The Packers are averaging 22.4 yards per explosive play while allowing 21.6 yards per explosive play on defense. The Bears are averaging 21.8 yards per explosive play while allowing 24.9 yards per explosive play on defense. Overall, the Packers are +700 in total explosive yards (3rd in the league), while the Bears are +56 (14th in the league).
The Bears are more susceptible to giving up explosive plays through the air, allowing 4.7 explosive plays in the passing game per game (13th in the league), so that’s where we’ll focus today.
We’ll start with a couple of the main issues plaguing the Bears’ defense: They can’t consistently get pressure on the quarterback. Per NFL Pro, the Bears’ average time to pressure is 2.89 seconds, 31st in the league. Their pressure rate of 29.3% is ranked 28th in the league. That should allow Jordan Love to feel nice and comfortable in the pocket, allowing them to operate in the vertical style they prefer to live in.
The Bears are also bad against play action. The Bears’ defense allows +0.11 EPA per Dropback against play action, 22nd in the league. On the flipside, the Packers offense generates +0.29 EPA per Dropback when running play action, the 5th-best mark of the league.
To go off of that last point, the middle of the field should be open off play action. Or, honestly, off of the regular dropback game. Between the lack of pressure and injuries at linebacker, the Bears’ defense has had a hard time covering the middle of the field, allowing open windows for explosive plays.
The safeties also have a tendency to hang back deep, which can leave a lot of grass in front of them. It can leave a lot of room for crossing routes. If Jayden Reed is back this week, I’m sending him on multiple crossers and...
