Niners Nation
For all the talk about the San Francisco 49ers’ “easy schedule” in 2025, people seem to forget that it is based on the 2024 versions of those teams. Unless those 2024 teams walk through the door in 2025, that isn’t a reliable way to predict the schedule’s difficulty.
For instance, who predicted the Jacksonville Jaguars would have a top-end defense and be a force in the AFC? The 49ers lost to them in Week 4. The strength of schedule fails to quantify the ebbs and flows of a season, also. What if a team with an overall losing record is a tough matchup due to their defense? Or what about a team that ends with an unfavorable record, but during the season, and more importantly, when the 49ers face the,m have found their footing and are a different team?
The only reason I bring up the 49ers’ schedule is that on Wild Card Sunday, they will face a top-ten defensive EPA unit for the ninth time (Seattle and LA account for four matchups). For the folks counting at home, that would be half of their games (Sunday is their 18th game). To take it one step further, the 49ers faced Atlanta and Indianapolis, who rank 15th and 16th in defensive EPA, respectively.
Let’s look at how the 49ers have fared in the eight games against the top ten units.
Week 1 – 49ers 17, Seattle 13
The 49ers stunned Seattle after a game-winning touchdown and defensive stop by Nick Bosa to close the show. With only 17 points, the 49ers left with a win, but nothing came easy. George Kittle left after the first touchdown drive, and Jauan Jennings was banged up, but luckily, this game was played in Week 1 before the Seahawks and Mike MacDonald figured out their defense and personnel.
Week 2 – 49ers 26, Saints 21
Facing New Orleans wasn’t billed as a struggle facing a top-end defense, but the Saints had two ten-sack defensive linemen in Cam Jordan and Chase Young and finished ninth with a defensive EPA of -0.07. Mac Jones and the 49ers offense scored 26 points (remember that number), and another defensive stop at the end of the game sealed the deal for the 49ers. It’s important to remember Spencer Rattler started this game, and the Saints’ offense was a far cry from the much more explosive and efficient offense it turned out to be when Tyler Shough took over down the stretch.
Week 4 – Jaguars 26, 49ers 21
Brock Purdy returned from his toe injury, probably a bit too soon, and the Jaguars’ defense generated turnovers at a league-high rate before Week 4. Purdy was slightly off all game, and the Jaguars created turnovers, including one on the 49ers’ last drive of the game. Nobody could have expected this defense to be this good in the offseason, as the Jaguars finished third in the NFL with a defensive EPA of -0.11.
Week 5 – 49ers 26, Rams 23 OT
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