Behind the Steel Curtain
The Pittsburgh Steelers have an interesting challenge awaiting them Monday night. The Houston Texans are practically the Absolute Batman version of the Steelers. Good quarterbacks, each team has one very good receiver while the rest of both groups lack a proven No. 2, and two good defenses with terrific pass rushers and high-quality secondaries.
While both teams have several similarities, the Texans have spent the 2025 season beating teams that do what the Steelers do defensively, meaning Pittsburgh should look to switch things up on that side of the ball in terms of what coverages they deploy.
As Mina Kimes pointed out this past week, the Houston Texans’ offense has been very successful against single-high safety looks. Per SumerBrain, the Texans were tied for seventh in the regular season in EPA per play against single-high coverage, throwing 13 touchdowns to three interceptions. Additionally, Houston registered 50 explosive plays (plays of 15+ yards) against single-high looks this season. Conversely, though, when the Texans face split-safety looks, their offense isn’t nearly as efficient. Their EPA per play dips from 0.30 to -0.02, and their explosive play percentage drops to 11.2 percent from 17.6 percent. They’ve also thrown twice as many interceptions (6) when facing split safety looks as when they face single-high coverages.
How does that affect the Steelers? They play single-high at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL, and the most amongst AFC playoff teams. Plus, they’ve also given up 30 plays of 20+ yards, which ranks 18th in the NFL. If I were the Steelers, I would deploy more two-high safety looks against Houston.
Specifically, I would deploy a lot of quarters coverage if I were the Steelers. Pittsburgh had the eighth-best success rate in the NFL when in Cover-Four this season – the Texans offense was 30th in success rate when facing quarters.
In the three games in which the Steelers deployed quarters the most – Colts, Dolphins, second game vs. Bengals – Pittsburgh won all three games by a combined score of 89-47 and had nine takeaways. If they utilize that strategy against Houston, they’ll increase their chances of keeping the Texans’ offense at bay.
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