How much should Matthew Stafford’s WRs hurt his MVP case?

We are officially in the final stretch of the 2025 NFL season with just four games left to play. These are going to be the four games fresh in the memory at the end of the season when voters are submitting their ballots for the end-of-season awards. When it comes to the NFL MVP award, it has become a two-horse race between Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye.

At the end of the day, these things have a way of working themselves out. Still, it won’t hurt that Stafford will play his former team as well as play for the division title on primetime over the next two weeks. If Stafford and the Rams can win those games, it will be almost impossible not to give him the MVP.

However, until then, there will continue to be discussion on who should win MVP between Stafford and Maye. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently gave Maye the edge in the MVP race. Said Barnwell,

“Stafford, on the other hand, has better receivers…Davante Adams has been on the field for 72% of Los Angeles’ snaps, and injuries and rest have limited Nacua to 64% of the Rams’ offensive snaps. Sean McVay is not stupid; Stafford has taken just 32 dropbacks this season without either of his star wideouts on the field. He has posted an 83.0 Total QBR on those plays, going 21-of-31 for 280 yards and three touchdowns…On the whole, though, I think most people would agree that Stafford has the two best receivers across both rosters…While the goal of every drive is to get into the end zone, a disproportionate number of Stafford’s scores are short throws to Adams, who has proved uncoverable near the goal line. Stafford already has 14 touchdowns on throws from the 5-yard line and in, which comfortably leads the league.”

Whether it’s that Stafford has an elite play caller in Sean McVay or one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL, they are arguments that have consistently been made against the Rams quarterback. The question really is, how much should these things matter? It would be naive to say that Stafford doesn’t benefit from the situation around him with McVay or Nacua and Adams. At the same time, Stafford makes McVay right when he’s wrong and Nacua and Adams might not be having their respective seasons with another quarterback.

Throughout Stafford’s career, there has been the “Stafford effect” for his wide receivers. There’s a reason Stafford has been the quarterback for two of the best receiving seasons of all time. When Calvin Johnson broke the receiving yards record in 2012, Stafford was his quarterback. Cooper Kupp won the triple crown in 2021 and had the second-most receiving yards in a season with Stafford as his quarterback. That doesn’t even mention that Puka Nacua broke the long-standing rookie receiving yards and receptions record with Stafford as his quarterback.

It goes beyond the record-breaking seasons for Stafford’s receivers. Golden...