Turf Show Times
Whether you call it overrated, underrated, or fairly rated, Matthew Stafford is having one of the most unusual seasons by a quarterback in recent history. For example, Stafford’s last 18 touchdown passes have come while the Rams are either tied or have the lead. It’s been almost two months since Stafford threw a touchdown while the Rams were trailing and 26 of his 30 touchdown passes have given or maintained a lead.
The lesson there is simply that the 2025 Rams are perhaps the best team that Stafford has ever been on and also that he hasn’t done anything to hurt the team, throwing 308 consecutive passes without an interception and 27 touchdowns since he was last picked off. Incredible.
But does everyone agree that Stafford’s 2025 season is that incredible or MVP worthy?
Kevin Cole, a former employee at PFF with over 40,000 twitter followers, posted a list that showed Stafford has a lower EPA (expected points added) per play than four other quarterbacks: Jordan Love, Drake Maye, Sam Darnold, and Patrick Mahomes.
Several in the replies wondered how Stafford could be that low despite a 30/2 TD:INT ratio:
“What’s the story on Stafford despite the TD/INT? I know he’s done it on higher volume than the others but still. A lot of goal line touchdowns are inflating his numbers? Cant really remember a case like this for all people accused Rodgers when he lead in EPA/play anyway in 2020”
Cole’s answer to that question specifically comes down to Stafford’s lack of rushing ability and a more pedestrian yards per attempt than some of those QBs ahead of him:
“The most fundamental basic rate stat is yards per attempt. Stafford is 8th at 7.6 (Darnold first at 9.3). Every other box score stats adjusts up or down this number. Stafford moves up based on TD/INT and a low sack rate. He’s second in adjusted ney (sic) yards per attempt (ANY/A), which factors in all those box score stats. He’s lower by EPA/play than ANY/A because he has negative rushing value. I include scrambles and designed QB runs in EPA/play. He’s at -7 EPA on those, whereas most top quarterbacks are positive”
Furthermore, Cole explained that by the measure of EPA (think of it as a value system for each play individually based on down, distance, game situation), Stafford is the NFL leader on all throws that result in either a touchdown or an interception, but just 10th on all other throws. Well behind leader Mahomes for all throws that don’t result in either a touchdown or an interception. Take that for what it’s worth.
“Stafford is 1st in EPA on TDs/INTs throws at +57.5. Jared Goff is second at +49.2 He’s 10th on all other dropbacks at +37.1. Patrick Mahomes is first at +99.2 TD/INT gets a lot of focus, but it’s not as big of a driver of efficiency as what happens on all the other dropbacks”
“If...
