Blogging The Boys
We are eight games into the Brian Schottenheimer era, nearly halfway through the season, and so far there is a lot to like about the 10th head coach of America’s Team.
Even after a miserable performance against the Broncos, the offense – for which Schottenheimer calls plays – has been stellar. They’re second in both yards and points and rank fifth in EPA/play and eighth in offensive DVOA. Dak Prescott is having arguably the best year of his illustrious career, and Javonte Williams is enjoying a career resurgence.
The defense hasn’t been as good, to say the least, but they’ve seen improvements. Over the last four weeks, they’re actually up to 20th in EPA/play and 15th in EPA/dropback, both of which are legitimate jumps in efficiency. Matt Eberflus has drastically shifted his scheme the last two weeks, increasing press coverage by over 20%, blitz rate by 24%, and tripling his rates of both Cover 1 and Cover 0.
Schottenheimer undoubtedly played a part, small or large, in making those schematic adjustments to better fit the players Eberflus is working with. He’s also remained steady in the precise, methodical way he calls this offense, routinely setting his players up for success despite not having CeeDee Lamb for a chunk of those games.
Yet, there is still one glaring area where Schottenheimer is failing the Cowboys: aggression.
That might seem odd to say, given the way Schottenheimer’s offense frequently attacks down the field, but I’m talking about his approach to fourth downs. Schottenheimer’s predecessor, Mike McCarthy, was one of the more aggressive head coaches in the league when it came to fourth-down decision-making. Thus far, Schottenheimer has not followed suit.
So far this season, the Cowboys have gone for it on fourth down just nine times. Only nine teams have fewer fourth-down attempts, but it isn’t just a lack of attempts. Schottenheimer hasn’t been going for it when he should go for it.
According to rbsdm.com, which uses a fourth-down model similar to what many NFL teams use, Dallas has gone for it on roughly 25% of the fourth downs they should be going for it. Specifically, this model accounts for plays where a successful conversion would yield at least a 1% win probability increase; for context, the average first down carries about a 0.4% win probability increase.
Schottenheimer’s ~25% optimal go rate is one of the lowest in the league, with only the Steelers and Titans having a lower rate. The Lions and Eagles, both of whom are doing pretty well so far this season, lead the league with an 86% optimal go rate. Almost two thirds of the league is over 50%, too, hammering home just how far behind the rest of the NFL Schottenheimer has been.
McCarthy had always been a risk-taker as a coach, but he made it a point in Dallas especially, building out the team’s analytics department over time. Now led by John Park, the Cowboys have one of the largest analytics departments in the league,...
