Hit or Bust: the 2023 Draft QBs sophomore years take a turn

Never evaluate a player off of just 1 year, especially at QB. The 2023 draft is proving the old adage true, it typically takes at least 3 years to fully evaluate a draft pick. Especially as fortunes turn for several of these young QBs.

After the 2023 season, many pundits and fans had come to some bold conclusions about the most recent rookie class of QBs.

• “CJ Stroud is a good bet to win MVP this year”
• “The Titans have a franchise QB”
• “Will Levis & Bryce Young battling to be the worst QB in the league”
• “Anthony Richardson is an obvious bust
• “Anthony Richardson is going to develop into an elite NFL QB”

SLOW YOUR ROLLS EVERYONE. It was (and still is) too early to proclaim these QBs busts or hits.

Through the 2024 season, there have been plenty of highs and lows for each of these 4 QBs, but at a certain point, the narratives of each seemed to point in a firm direction for each of these QBs mid-season:

CJ Stroud Weeks 1-6:

• 142/208 = 68.3% Completion % | 9th/36 QBs
• 1,577 Pass Yards | 6th
• 7.6 Yards Per Attempt | Tied 14th
• 10 Pass TDs | Tied 5th
• 4.1% Big Time Throw % | Tied 11th
• 4 INTs | 14th lowest %
• 2.8% Turnover Worthy Play % | Tied 14th Lowest
• 20.5% Pressure To Sack % | 19th
• 80.8 PFF Grade | 6th
• 78 Passing Grade | 6th

Narrative “Confirmed”: CJ Stroud is a top 10 QB

CJ Stroud picked up right where he left off in 2023 as a rookie. After all, he was putting up elite numbers while guiding the Texans to a 5-1 start to the year! Houston looks like it is on the precipice for a possible 1st round Bye in the playoffs and are certifiable contenders with the additions of Stefon Diggs at WR and Danielle Hunter at DE.

Anthony Richardson Weeks 1-8

• 59/133 = 44.4% Completion % | 39th/39 QBs
• 958 Pass Yards | 22nd (Per Game)
• 7.2 Yards Per Attempt | Tied 17th
• 4 Pass TDs | 32nd
• 7.2% Big Time Throw% | 2nd
• 7 INTs | 2nd highest %
• 5% Turnover Worthy Play% | 4th Highest %
• 16.4% Pressure to Sack % | 14th
• 48.7 PFF Grade | 36th
• 49.5 Passing Grade | 36th
• -1.115 EPA/Play | 31st
• 37.4% Success Rate | 35th
• Missed Weeks 5-6 + most of Week 4 with injury
• Benched after Week 8 for Joe Flacco who gave the team the “best chance to win”

Narrative “Confirmed”: Anthony Richardson is a bust

Sure he was 14th in Pressure to Sack % and 2nd in Big Time Throw Rate, showing some flashes. But after a 3 INT game vs the Packers and every 2024 game he completed he finished with under...