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Is the NFL starting to rank Rams QB Matthew Stafford too highly?
When quarterback Matthew Stafford joined the Los Angeles Rams at the beginning of the 2021 season, he may have been one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the NFL. Stafford was a player that everyone knew had the talent, but never played on a team with a supporting cast good enough to help him against quality opponents. Coming to Los Angeles, there were serious questions on whether Stafford could win the big game.
Throughout Stafford’s career, he has mostly been thought of as a fringe top-10 quarterback. The NFL has typically ranked him inside the top-10, but rarely near the top-5. That was despite the fact that he typically had top-5 stats. In 2015, Stafford ranked eighth in yards and touchdowns, but in Mike Sando’s NFL QB Tier Rankings that are voted on by various NFL personnel, he ranked just 14th. At the time, as Sando said, “Some voters think Stafford has become another Jay Cutler — talented, but too flawed to belong in the upper tiers.”
While 14th was on the lower end, it is a good visualization of how the NFL viewed Stafford at the time. Since then, he’s consistently been viewed as a fringe-top-10 quarterback. In 2016 and 2017, Stafford finished eighth and ninth. He did rank 11th in 2019, but Stafford’s average ranking from 2017 until 2021 was 8.4.
These particular seasons would have been thought of as Stafford’s prime and he was considered a fringe top-10 quarterback by NFL personnel. However, since joining the Rams, that has shifted drastically and heading into 2025, Stafford is generally considered closer to the top-5 than he is the top-10.
Following his first season with the Rams, Stafford garnered a No. 7 ranking in Sando’s tier list. Said Sando, “A good team helped Stafford after bad Detroit teams dragged him down for years.” Following a poor 2022, Stafford still was ranked 10th and heading into last season, he officially entered the top-5, ranking fifth. In ESPN’s latest quarterback rankings that also polls various NFL personnel, Stafford ranked sixth.
While Stafford is getting the credit that he deserved for years in Detroit, it’s fair to wonder if the needle has shifted too much in the other direction. Using a cumulative ranking of major quarterback stats such as EPA per dropback, completion percentage over expectation, success rate, passer rating, PFF, DYAR, and DVOA, Stafford ranked 16th among qualifying players. He had an average ranking of 15.63.
From a statistical standpoint, it’s hard to say that Stafford is close to being a top-five quarterback. The Rams quarterback hasn’t eclipsed 25 touchdown passes or 4,000 yards since his inaugural season in Los Angeles. He’s had more top-5 flashes and has lacked overall consistency.
Stats certainly aren’t everything, and at times lack context. It’s very difficult to separate quarterback performance from the overall health of the offense. CJ Stroud was a bottom-10 quarterback in several metrics last season. Nobody would say he...
