Pride of Detroit
The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions square off in a rematch of Week 1’s jarring triumph by Matt LaFleur’s team. Dan Campbell had previously won six of seven against LaFleur—including three straight at Lambeau Field—before that opener snapped Detroit’s run of success. Both teams now sit looking up in the NFC North standings as they try to keep pace with the -3 point-differential, 8–3 Chicago Bears.
Since their hot start—manhandling the Lions and then the once-formidable Jayden Daniels-led Commanders in Week 2—the Packers have gone 5-3-1, marked by inconsistency and notable low-scoring setbacks to the Browns and Panthers, plus a tie against the Cowboys. The Lions defense will look to rebound after allowing an unprecedented number of explosive passes to the Jameis Winston and Wan’Dale Robinson-led Giants. Fortunately for Detroit, Jordan Love has been held under 200 passing yards in three straight games (and six of 11 this season), and Green Bay has failed to reach 300 total yards in three straight games (also six of 11).
Detroit’s defense needs to respond from its uncharacteristic showing against the Giants to keep the Packers offense from finding any rhythm. Meanwhile, the Lions offense remains in the shop for repairs and a tune-up but will aim to operate more efficiently than it did in Week 1. Prior to last Thanksgiving Day’s win over the Bears, the Lions had lost seven straight on the holiday as part of a stretch where they dropped 11 of 12 from 2001-12. To keep the winning momentum going, this preview digs into three key statistical matchups the Lions must control.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference and exclude garbage time.
The inconsistent stretches of the Packers offense from last year have carried into this season. They rank top-five in both success rate and EPA per play, yet sit 13th in points per game (23.9) with several other metrics outside the top 10. One area they’ve consistently generated movement however is out of 11-personnel. While they use 11-personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) only 55.7% of the time—20th in the NFL—it has been their most reliable and most explosive grouping. That reliance will likely increase without stud tight end Tucker Kraft.
Packers offense – 11-personnel
Despite a rotating cast of skill players, Matt LaFleur’s offense with Jordan Love has hit jackpot-level explosives out of 11-personnel this season. The Packers will be without Jayden Reed and Savion Williams, with Matthew Golden questionable (wrist), while Christian Watson (knee), Romeo Doubs (wrist), and Dontayvion Wicks (calf) will play but have recent ailments. Malik Heath (Week 11 healthy scratch) or Bo Melton (two catches in Week 10, had converted to CB) may also factor in, along with Luke Musgrave, John FitzPatrick, and Josh Whyle at tight end.
The Lions defense still leads the...
