NFL Trade Rumors
There is only one thing I feel confident in saying about the seven new hires in the 2025 coaching cycle.
Most of them will be fired at some point over the next three years.
If there’s a reliable way to predict successful NFL coaches, I haven’t found it yet and the NFL certainly hasn’t either. Change is the only constant for head coaching hires, who have to battle ferocious headwinds such as a fiercely competitive NFL, a scarcity of quality quarterbacks, impatient owners and high bars for success.
In the 2020s so far, there have been 42 coaching changes or an average of seven per year. The number of one-and-done coaches this decade (seven) already equals the number from the 2010s and there are still four more years left in the 2020s to keep adding.
There’s also a huge learning curve. Most coaches who are hired are first-timers who were previously coordinators or even lower on the staff hierarchy. While some head coaches continue to call plays for their respective side of the ball and have a big hand in constructing game plans, the job of head coach is significantly different than the job of a coordinator, and that’s borne out in the results.
All of that is to say what you are about to read is probably going to be wrong in a year. Some of it might even be downright silly. But hopefully, some of it is less wrong than the rest.
A quick note — while the Saints have not hired their head coach yet, all signs are pointing to Eagles OC Kellen Moore as the top target they’ve zeroed in on. Moore can’t officially join the team until after the Super Bowl on February 9. By that point, the rest of this article will be a lot less relevant, so we’re rolling with what we’ve got and the current uncertainty will be reflected in the Saints’ grade section.
Grade: A
There’s no way to know for sure if Johnson is going to be a success as a head coach. But as an offensive coordinator, it’s hard to compile a better resume than the one he has. Since Johnson took over as the play-caller, the Lions have been a top-five offense — literally. They’ve finished inside the top five in both scoring and total yards in all three of Johnson’s seasons, including ranking as the No. 1 scoring offense and No. 2 total offense in 2024.
Johnson’s creativity and skill as a play-caller has been a huge factor in Detroit’s success, particularly because while Lions QB Jared Goff is a solid player, he’s not in the same tier as some of the other forces of nature playing quarterback right now. Johnson is also unique because his roots aren’t in the ubiquitous coaching tree of 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan and Rams HC Sean McVay that dominates the NFL. While his offense borrows from that family like most around the league, his scheme...
