Big Blue View
The New York Giants host the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday at 1 p.m., in what will be Jaxson Dart’s first NFL start. The Giants are 6.5-point home underdogs, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
Desperation best defines the New York Giants’ season, and the calendar hasn’t hit October. However, one could posit the notion that, while desperation is evident, it’s not the only reason the Giants turned to Jaxson Dart. Sure, Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen’s seats resemble a steel chair in the July Arizona sun, but the offense has looked unwatchable through two of three games, and Russell Wilson was ineffective in the red zone.
Jameis Winston is a Giant, too. However, if the Giants truly believe Dart is ready, then giving Winston the reins seems pointless. Yet, it’s fair to question the decision-making behind this decision, especially against this Chargers’ defense. Our Chris Pflum has a look at how the offense will change.
The Giants’ defense must do everything in its power to alleviate the burden on Dart’s shoulders. That, too, is not an easy task.
The Chargers are undefeated, having won against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos. They average 23.3 points per game (tied for 14th in the NFL). The Chargers rank sixth in the league in total yards per game (362.3 yards per game). They’re second in the NFL with an average of 270 pass yards per game, and they’re 24th in rushing, with a 92.3 yards per game average.
Los Angeles ranks third in the league in third-down conversion with a 46.34% average; only the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers have a better third-down conversion rate. The Giants are 31st with a 27.50% third-down conversion rate. The Chargers, however, are on the lower end of red zone touchdown rate; Los Angeles ranks 29th in the league with a 40% rate, and the Giants are 31st, cleaving the Chargers’ percentage in half.
A ground-and-pound rhetoric characterized the Jim Harbaugh era of Chargers’ football. However, 2025 has seen a slightly different approach from Greg Roman and the Chargers’ offense; the Chargers have a +8.8 Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), which is number one in the NFL:
A +8.8% PROE means the Chargers are passing 8.8 percentage points more often than a model would expect them to, based purely on situation. Those situations are down and distance, score, field position, time on the clock, etc.
Justin Herbert has thrived with this pass-heavy approach. His pass EPA (Expected Points Added) is 25.47, which ranks seventh in the NFL. His EPA per play is 0.40, which places him second in the league. He’s completed 72 of 108 passes for 860 yards with six touchdowns and one interception. His yards per attempt is 8.0 yards, and his aDOT is 9.3 yards. He’s also rushed for 69 yards, but has two fumbles.
The Chargers’ rushing attack suffered a significant loss last week. Najee Harris tore his Achilles and is out after averaging 4.1 yards per...
