Big Blue View
The New York Giants square off with the Washington Commanders in a Week 15 matchup that could significantly impact their positioning in the 2026 NFL Draft; unfortunately, that’s what Giant fans have looked forward to at this time of year in recent seasons. Washington was kind enough to join the Giants in the doldrums of the NFC East this season.
After a trip to the NFC Championship game last season, Washington has been battered by injuries and regression. The Giants currently hold the first overall pick in the draft with their 2-11 record, and Washington is 3-10, with one of their wins coming against the Giants in Week 1 (21-6). Quarterback Jayden Daniels was ruled out after returning last week from his devastating elbow injury. New York will face Marcus Mariota.
Something has to give, right? Washington enters on an eight-game losing streak, and the Giants are riding a seven-game skid of their own. The Giants are home favorites (-2.5) and the Over/Under is set at 46.5 points. Washington was shut out by Minnesota last week, 31-0.
Let’s look at the matchup between the Giants’ offense and the Commanders’ defense.
Dan Quinn’s defense has regressed, and many opponents have exploited the lack of top-end talent. The Commanders’ defense allows 27.2 points per game, ranking them 28th in the NFL. They’re 30th in yards allowed, allowing 382.5 yards per game. Washington’s defense allows 135.5 yards on the ground, ranking them 29th in the league — the Giants’ defense is worse in all three of the categories above.
Washington allows 246.9 passing yards per game, ranking 30th in the league. The Giants are at 24th, with an average of 231.5 yards per game. Washington allows a 43.04% third-down percentage (25th in NFL) and a 65% red zone touchdown rate.
Joe Whitt Jr. is the defensive coordinator. The Commanders blitz on 23.5% of snaps, tied with the New York Giants for the 19th-highest in the league. The Commanders get pressure on 19.5% of their snaps. Washington has been plagued by missed tackles; they have 101 missed tackles on the season, which is the fifth most in the NFL.
The Washington defense is devoid of top end talent, but veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner continues to play at a high level. According to NFL Insights, Wagner has tackled the ball carrier on 24.1% of his run defense snaps this season, the second-highest in the NFL (minimum 150 run defense snaps), while missing on just 4.5% of his run tackle opportunities (seventh-lowest among linebackers, minimum 150 run defense snaps).
Wagner has a high 89.7 PFF grade that would be much higher if his coverage grade wasn’t so low (48.5); there’s possibly opportunity for the Giants to scheme mismatches against Wagner in man coverage with either tight end Theo Johnson or running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. Wagner leads the team with 39 STOPs.
Fellow linebacker, Frankie Luvu, has 24 STOPs. For reference, Brian Burns has 34 STOPs on the season and Bobby Okereke 31;...
