First-read targets a metric to watch with Buffalo Bills with Joe Brady as head coach

How much the offense will look different in 2026 versus 2025 has been a significant topic if discussion ever since former offensive coordinator Joe Brady was announced as the new Buffalo Bills head coach following the dismissal of former head coach Sean McDermott. How much the offense was influenced by McDermott’s desires, and in what ways, is a largely speculative topic. And while the truth is that we’ll won’t really know until the bullets start flying in week one what is true, the next logical question after “how much will be different” is “how will we know”? Apart from diving into route concepts and outlining on film new or unfamiliar pieces of the offense in 2026 versus 2025, run/pass ratio is likely to be a hot topic early in the regular season. With the Bills being at the top of the league in overall run rate over the last few seasons, how pass happy the team is or is not out of the gate will likely be an easy barometer for many people when seeking to find the differential between a “Brady-envisioned offense” and a “McDermott-envisioned offense run by Brady.”

But allow me, if you would, to offer an additional (not alternative) metric for us to keep an eye on early in 2026 that may show some departure from previous years and could help show a departure from the offense of the past: first read targets.

In 2025, these were the Bills’ leaders in first-read (or designed) targets, sorted by first read/designed targets per game, per Fantasy Points:

1. Khalil Shakir – 69 first read targets (4.21 per game, 23.5% of team’s total)
2. Keon Coleman – 46 (3.54, 19.3%)
3. Dalton Kincaid – 38 (3.16, 17.3%)
4. Gabe Davis – 14 (2.33, 12.3%)
5. Joshua Palmer – 27 (2.25, 11.7%)
6. Brandin Cooks – 10 (1.43, 11.2%)
7. Dawson Knox – 34 (2.00, 10.8%)
8. Elijah Moore – 12 (1.33, 7.1%)
9. Tyrell Shavers – 13 (0.76, 4.1%)
10. Curtis Samuel – 4 (0.67, 3.8%)
11. Mecole Hardman – 1 (0.50, 3.1%)
12. Keleki Latu – 2 (0.40, 2.1%)
13. Jackson Hawes – 5 (0.29, 1.6%)

The “spam the screen to Shakir button” narrative was completely justified as it became a story of the 2025 season, but these numbers could look very different even earlier in the season. For one, the Bills have a healthy Dalton Kincaid (and yes, part of that is wishful thinking and aligning myself with the tight end himself saying he’s never felt better). The numbers above are sorted by first read/designed targets per game, which means we’re controlling for the time Kincaid missed, but we’re not controlling for any limiting the Bills may have had to do with him due to lingering knee issues. Games where his overall snap count wasn’t what it otherwise would have been if not for load management are included (Kincaid didn’t play a game with more than 35 snaps from Week 6 all the way until the end of...