Hogs Haven
Welcome back for another round of fantasy football ramblings. In today’s edition: Overreaction Tuesday.
The week in between the first set of NFL games and Week 2 presents one of the best opportunities all season to change your fortunes in fantasy football. Everyone likes their team going into Week 1 – you had a plan, you drafted the guys you were high on, all that’s left is the coronation – but then reality strikes and there are hits and misses. Every league will see good players given up on too soon because of a rough opener. Every league will see flashes in the pan become temporarily overrated commodities because they looked great in Week 1. And every league will see the counter-reaction to that as well—guys that surprised Week 1 and will continue to play well, but that you’ll miss out on because you weren’t quick enough to buy that it wasn’t a fluke.
There’s no magic bullet to sorting which players belong in which category, but it’s a good week to make some educated guesses while the masses overreact to a week’s worth of games that are ultimately just a single data point. Check whether the A.J. Brown owner in your league will trade him for a bag of peanuts after a 1-target first week. See if you can sell your shares of Travis Etienne Jr. to someone who thinks a weekly Top 5 RB performance from a guy with Bhayshul Tuten breathing down his neck is somehow sustainable. Find out if the Christian McCaffrey owner in your league wants to “sell high” – but really means take anything he can get – after a decent Week 1 that had potential injury news lurking in the background.
Most importantly, kick the tires and float some trades around just to see where there’s interest. If there’s a sucker to be had in your league, you want to find them before someone else gets the prime assets off their roster at a discount.
In the meantime, here are some names to watch among players with 50% or less ownership in ESPN leagues heading into this week’s waivers:
Geno Smith – Aaron Rodgers will get all the publicity after a 4 TD debut with Pittsburgh. But Geno’s 362 passing yard performance may actually be the more replicable outcome among former Jets castaways, and the next big week like that likely will come with more than 1 TD.
Dylan Sampson – Jerome Ford was reported to be the Week 1 starter. Quinshon Judkins, finally signed, is reported to be the starter of the future. But it was Sampson who was actually the most productive in Cleveland’s opener.
Tyler Allgeier – A former 1,000 yard rusher who quietly split carries in Week 1 (10 for Allgeier, 12 for Bijan Robinson) and may see more opportunities if injuries to Drake London and Darnell Mooney require Bijan to play a more prominent role in the Falcons passing game.
Hollywood Brown – 16 targets in Week 1,...
