Acme Packing Company
Over the last few weeks, my timeline and mentions have been filled with unnecessary discourse about two of the top receivers on the Green Bay Packers in Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
Immediately following Watson’s extension, which was initially reported as being worth up to $110 million, social media was full of people saying things along the lines of “holy overpay”, claiming that the Packers overpaid for a player who has never surpassed 700 receiving yards. We could go into an entire other conversation about contract valuations, and what fans should actually be looking for when it comes to reported contracts. Our own Tex Western already had that conversation immediately following the extension.
But then I started to see other shots directed at Golden in the midst of this conversation about Watson’s value, claiming that the first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft was a bust because of his box score stats (29 catches for 361 yards and zero touchdowns in the regular season).
There was even a fantasy football analyst in my mentions saying that Quentin Johnston was a better player than Christian Watson in terms of value and draft position.
That’s where I draw the line.
A significant portion of NFL fans (certainly not all of them) have become so obsessed with box scores that online discourse has become almost impossible when it comes to being able to properly evaluate skill positions. Context, film, and advanced metrics are ignored for the sake of citing catches, yards, and touchdowns to determine whether a player is good or bad. But that’s a disingenuous way to evaluate a player’s ability and predictor or future performance, particularly on an offense like the one the Packers have had in recent years.
With so many mouths to feed in Green Bay’s receiver room over the last couple of seasons, players like Watson and Golden have had far fewer opportunities with the ball in their hands, but advanced metrics show that both players are doing enough with those opportunities to see huge upticks in performance and production in 2026.
Take Watson, who returned from a torn ACL in the middle of the year and caught just 35 passes for 611 yards and six touchdowns. However, despite those numbers, Watson had the highest DVOA among NFL wide receivers in 2025, according to FTN Fantasy.
DVOA is a measure of a receiver’s overall efficiency, and once you actually dive into why Watson was so efficient, it’s easier to have a more realistic conversation about his ability.
Watson’s production came in just 10 regular season games last year, which at a similar pace over a 17-game season would have been a more exciting stat line of about 60 catches, 1,039 yards, and 10 touchdowns. On top of that, Watson was ninth among qualified WRs with 2.28 yards per route run, sixth with a 120.8 passer rating when targeted, and third with an averaged depth of target (aDOT) or 17.4 yards downfield.
But beyond stats and metrics, Watson plays...
