Big Blue View
The high floor/high ceiling studs that won’t keep you up at night
Greetings, fantasy faithful! June is almost here, and that means the start of the 2025 NFL season is only about three months away. It’s not too early to start thinking about your drafts for season-long fantasy football leagues.
In my last column, I looked at some of the biggest fantasy football questions for the upcoming season. Today’s topic: The safest players to draft in fantasy. What makes a player a safe pick, you ask? I’m glad you asked! My basic definition is players who not only provide a high ceiling, but also a very high floor. A less technical definition is players who don’t ever keep you up at night. But let’s peel the onion a bit to see what gets a player into that rarified air.
One factor is health. Injuries are impossible to predict in the NFL. It’s a physical and violent game played by some of the biggest, strongest, and fastest people on the planet. We know going in that any player can get hurt on any play. That said, there are players who get injured (and miss games, or even entire seasons) more frequently than others. Larry Fitzgerald was always one of my favorite players to roster in fantasy. Not only was he a terrific producer, but he was as dependable as they come. He only missed nine games, total, in a Hall of Fame 17-year career. Nine! Maybe it’s just luck, but as they say, the best ability is availability. You won’t find Christian McCaffrey on my 2025 list.
Another key factor is consistency, regardless of what is going on around the player. Needless to say, most of the players on my list are on offenses that have been very good for at least the past couple of seasons. Teams with a stable quarterback situation and good coaching tend to be the best breeding grounds for consistent fantasy production. Players like D.J. Moore, Jaylen Waddle, and D.K. Metcalf are very talented, but for a variety of reasons they’ve each had inconsistent production over the past few seasons. They’ve all got good upside, but I wouldn’t put any of them on a list of “safest picks”.
The third thing I’m looking for is a proven track record over several seasons. Last year was a banner year for rookies, and I’m excited to roster any number of second-year standouts. Do I think Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Brian Thomas, Jr., Malik Nabers, Bucky Irving, Ladd McConkey, and Brock Bowers are safe picks this season? I absolutely do (to varying degrees), but we’ve only seen it for one year, and before I’m putting any of them on a list of the safest players I want at least one more healthy and productive season. The minimum to make it onto my list is two seasons. Sorry, Ashton Jeanty. Again, this doesn’t mean rookies or second-year studs aren’t relatively safe picks.
One final point: If a player isn’t listed...
