Big Blue View
A look at the key variables for fantasy for each NFL team, Part II
Welcome to Part II of my look at the biggest question facing each NFL team, from a fantasy perspective. Last week I tackled the AFC, and today I’ll delve into the NFC.
I’ll repeat what I said in last week’s column: I think that identifying the key questions to ask is an important first step in fantasy draft prep. As a drafter, I want to try to understand the biggest variables that might impact player and team performance. That can help shape my thinking, and I can do my analysis from there.
Any fantasy stats or rankings shown are for Half Point PPR, are on a fantasy points per game (FPPG) basis, and don’t include the final week of the season. ADPs are current, but obviously they’re going to change a lot between now and when the bulk of drafts happen in season-long redraft leagues.
You can link to all of my preseason fantasy content here.
NFC East
Philadelphia – Will the Eagles be as run-heavy as they were in 2024? Philly has one of the NFL’s most skilled WR duos, but their fantasy upside could again be capped by the offense. In 2023, with the Eagles’ secondary regularly getting torched, A.J. Brown (14.8 FPPG) and DeVonta Smith (11.7 FPPG) finished as the WR8 and WR19, respectively. The Eagles used their first two draft picks in 2024 on defensive backs, and the defense was much better. Philadelphia regularly got out to big leads and pounded the ball, and their run rate of 56.3% was the highest in the league, as were their 621 rushing attempts.
Through the end of the 2024 fantasy regular season (Week 14), Brown was the WR13 and Smith was outside the Top-30 wide receivers (Smith went off in the fantasy playoffs and got himself inside the Top-20 WRs for the full year). Brown had almost two fewer targets per game in 2024 vs. 2023, and Smith also went down slightly. You get where I’m going. It’s hard to get too excited about paying up for WRs that averaged 7.3 and 6.8 targets per game last year, respectively.
Washington – What does 29-year-old Deebo Samuel have left in the tank? In terms of name recognition, Washington adding Deebo to the offense was one of the bigger moves this past offseason. But how consequential will it be? Deebo was the WR3 in 2021, but in the ensuing years he has never reached the same rushing or receiving levels as he did in that magical season. He’s also battled multiple injuries and illnesses and seems to be on a clear decline. But how sharp is the decline, and could he still be a difference-maker and YAC merchant in the right system? The Commanders didn’t have a lot at WR last season after Terry McLaurin. A healthy and effective Deebo could be huge for phenom Jayden Daniels in year two in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.
Dallas —...
