Big Blue View
A look at the key variables for fantasy for every NFL team, Part I
The NFL has 32 teams, and as we head into each new season, every one of those teams faces a slew of questions. That’s true from a pure football standpoint, and it’s also true from a fantasy perspective. Quarterback questions often dominate the landscape, because so much hinges on them. Who will be the Colts’ starting QB? Does Aaron Rodgers have anything left? Can Michael Penix sustain what he showed as a rookie in a small sample size? Have the Patriots done enough to help Drake Maye succeed in year two? Will a major culture change in Chicago turn things around for Caleb Williams? Can Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy? Was Sam Darnold’s 2024 season a fluke? You get the idea.
If we knew the answers to these and other pivotal questions, we’d ace all of our fantasy drafts and win all of our leagues. Sadly, we don’t. And – spoiler alert – any fantasy analyst who tells you that he or she has all the answers is blowing smoke. The best we can do is synthesize what we know and make educated predictions.
With that said, I do think that identifying the key questions to ask is an important first step in fantasy draft prep. As a drafter, I want to understand the biggest variables that might impact player and team performance. That can help shape my thinking, and I can do my analysis from there.
So today I’ll try to present the most consequential question we should be asking about each NFL team, from a fantasy standpoint. Check that, I’m only going to ask that for 16 teams today. It’s a big league, so I’m splitting this exercise into two parts. Today is Part 1: The AFC.
Any fantasy stats or rankings shown are for Half Point PPR, are on a fantasy points per game (FPPG) basis, and don’t include the final week of the season. ADPs are current, but obviously they’re going to change a lot.
You can link to all of my preseason fantasy content here.
AFC East
Buffalo – Which Bills pass-catchers will be start-worthy on a weekly basis? Khalil Shakir can probably be a reliable WR2 most weeks, but I don’t think his upside is all that strong. Keon Coleman? Dalton Kincaid? Neither of these young players did much last season. Could Josh Palmer or Elijah Moore break out with a fresh start? Josh Allen puts up monster fantasy points every season but since Stefon Diggs left (and really, for the last half-season before he did), that hasn’t led to great production from any of the wide receivers or tight ends. Bonus question – Can James Cook come anywhere close to the 18 TDs he scored last season, with two other backs perhaps more prominently in the mix, and Allen continuing to operate as the goal-line back?
Miami – Can Tua stay healthy? I’m tempted to ask if 31 year-old **Tyreek...
