Big Blue View
Welcome to Part II of my Red light/Green light series. The Green light: Players to target column dropped the other day and today I’m giving you the companion piece – the players I’m trying to avoid. Get ready for some negativity.
Before we get into today’s discussion, this is a link to my other preseason fantasy football content here at Big Blue View: Fantasy Football Hub.
Let me clarify what this column is about. I’m not advocating that the players discussed should get crossed off your draft board. Rather, I’m trying to identify players whose current Average Draft Position (ADP) for redraft leagues is not offering good value. You’ll notice that my rankings on every player listed in this column are below market. That’s the idea. This isn’t a “busts” column, but rather a list of players who I think will underperform their current draft price, and who I probably won’t have much exposure to in redraft because I’ll pass on them at cost. Would I draft some of them a round (or more) later than ADP? Sure, and that varies by player. This column is all about value, and getting return on your investment. It’s also about trying to avoid costly mistakes.
NOTE: I’m mainly focusing on players going inside the first 120 picks (roughly, the first 10 rounds of a 12-team draft). Once you get past that point in drafts, overpaying doesn’t hurt you so much, because you’re taking players as depth for your bench and/or for potential upside if things break right, and you’re less likely to be passing over difference-making players. For those who play in auction leagues, I’m looking to avoid the same players at average draft cost in that format, because I think they’ll be overpriced.
ADPs listed are as of August 14, 2025, and ADPs, rankings, and points reflect Half PPR scoring, on a points per game basis. ADPs are a little all over the place right now. I’m using a consensus of ADPs, but your mileage may vary.
My Red light column from 2024 was net positive, but I can’t get past the horrific calls on Joe Burrow and Devon Achane. Sorry, people. Can I get a mulligan? Hopefully you ignored those. Notable hits included C.J. Stroud, Rachaad White, Rhamondre Stevenson, Marvin Harrison, Jr., Chris Olave, Jayden Reed, and Cole Kmet, who all underperformed expectations.
Quarterback
Jared Goff (ADP: 97, My Ranking: 106). I’m a Goff fan, and think he’ll be fine this season. Last season was a bit of a career year, and with the departure of Ben Johnson, the retirement of Center Frank Ragnow, and more outdoor games on the schedule, some drop-off is likely. Still, he’s been very solid for all three of his seasons in Detroit. This fade is more about my strategy at quarterback than it is about Goff and the other QBs ranked 6-11. If I don’t get one of the Top-5 quarterbacks (and ideally, one of the dual-threat studs in the...
