Falcons’ risky move could net top-5 pick for Rams

The Falcons are betting they’ll be good, but the Rams are praying they aren’t

Find someone who believes in you as much as the Atlanta Falcons believe in themselves. The Falcons had a losing record last season, they are handing the offense over to a quarterback with three career starts, the head coach is looking for his first winning season since 2010, and Vegas projected just 7.5 wins in 2025 following a “lackluster” free agency in which the team was also unable to trade Kirk Cousins.

Despite these and other facts about the current state of their franchise, Atlanta was the second-boldest team in the draft by trading a 2026 first round pick to the L.A. Rams in order to double-down on their biggest weakness, edge rushers. General manager Terry Fontenot, who is 0-for-4 in attempts to have a winning season on the job, doesn’t make that move if he believes he has a five-year plan in front of him.

Fearful that his hot seat will explode if the Falcons do not win games immediately (the last GM and HC were fired after an 0-5 start in 2020), Fontenot is betting that the team is good enough to make the playoffs and make fans forget that he traded the future for James Pearce.

I would be willing to take that bet against Fontenot. If he’s wrong, the Rams might not just get a first round pick, but a top-5 pick if the Falcons are every bit as bad as they could possibly be next season.

Here are the reasons that Fontenot’s bet was too risky for Atlanta:

The Falcons were not a good team in 2024

It would be a different story if the team making this bet was the Lions, Eagles, or Chiefs. Basically, any franchise that is consistently in the playoffs and wanting to strike twice in the first round. That is not the case in Atlanta and if anything, their 8-9 record was GENEROUS.

Out of eight wins:

• Swept the Bucs in two close games, one in OT, a team that didn’t win a playoff game
• Beat the Eagles by one point when they didn’t have A.J. Brown
• Did not beat any other teams that had a winning record in 2024
• Split season series against 5-12 teams Carolina and New Orleans
• Beat 4-13 Raiders
• Beat 3-14 Giants
• Beat 7-10 Cowboys

The Falcons are not coming out of a good season, or even really a promising one. They had to bench the quarterback who they invested $90 million guaranteed into, emphasizing a MAJOR weakness in the pro scouting department. They finished 28th in points per drive allowed despite hiring a defensive-minded head coach in Raheem Morris, and their response to that letdown was to fire defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake and hire Jeff Ulbrich after he was part of the Jets cleaning house last season.

Maybe the Atlanta Falcons will be a better team in 2025 because of their...