Crossing Broad
It’s been a weird couple of weeks for our weekend betting pursuits. A couple of bad beats, like Pitt’s best player going down injured in the Backyard Brawl, resulting in the Panthers looking like the Bad News Bears on the afternoon.
Last weekend, for instance, we were burned by a backdoor Temple cover, while the Union won, but only mustered a single goal at home. Rutgers and Iowa decided that defense was optional in Piscataway, but we broke even on the strength of Jalen Hurts props and the Phillies/D Backs over hitting in two of the three games.
We’re basically flat through a couple of weeks, so you can do one of two things here.
You can tail me in hopes that the bad beats are aberrations, or you can fade Kinkead and do the total opposite instead.
Here’s what we’re looking at this weekend:
Keep it simple. There’s nothing broken here and therefore no fixing required.
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer has cashed six times in a row and in 16 of the last 22 games he has started and finished. He found the end zone last year down in Tampa and there’s no reason not to take this at -130 at ESPN Bet.
See all 1 picks Phillies vs. Twins
It’s Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, and Cristopher Sanchez going for the Phils in a weekend series that doesn’t mean anything for either team, outside of the Phillies hopefully taking some momentum into the five-day gap before the NLDS.
For Friday night, Nola vs. Joe Ryan, there’s value on the over 8.5 at -110. For games two and three, look into the Phillies’ first five innings moneyline with two studs on the mound. The other thing to consider is playing time for some fringe guys, as Topper balances rest and form in the final home series. There might be some value on guys like Edmundo Sosa and the platoon outfielders this weekend.
Of the three remaining games, this one is the easiest.
D.C. United totally stinks. They’ve only won five games out of 31 and have either tied or lost 13 of their 15 home games.
The U throttled D.C. 3-0 at home back in April and there’s no reason to think they won’t handle business in Warshington on Saturday night. I’d hesitate on playing any totals, but the Union moneyline at -110 is perfectly reasonable. We play that, OUTRIGHT.
If you agree that “less is more” when it comes to sports betting, then we keep things very simple and take Penn State -185 on the moneyline. It’s hard to see Oregon, or anyone, coming out to Happy Valley and winning a nighttime White Out game with a first-year quarterback.
If you don’t like that number, you can get PSU -3.5 at -110 or move the line down to -2.5 at -170, which cashes on a field-goal win.
The 53.5 total in this...
