Acme Packing Company
The Green Bay Packers and quarterback Jordan Love are throwing the rock deep this year. So far in 2025, Love is second in passes traveling at least 20 yards downfield and leads the NFL with a 12.5 average air yards per throw.
One reason for this is the number of blitzes and man coverage the team has seen. Both the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders base their defense around blitzing their linebackers, which leaves their coverage defenders in man coverage at a high rate.
For example, both the Lions and Commanders are two of five teams that have played some form of man coverage (Cover 0, Cover 1 or 2 Man) at least 40 percent of the time this year. One team, the Dallas Cowboys, hasn’t so much as played a single snap in those coverages in 2025, per Fantasy Points.
How do the Cleveland Browns, the Packers’ next opponent on the docket, fare in terms of man coverage rate? They lead the NFL with 51 percent played.
So, yeah, expect more of the same, including on the ground, from Green Bay’s offense this week. Cleveland will try to stack the box to stop the run. The Packers won’t really get their running game going until the second half. But through the air, assume that Green Bay is going to be big play hunting against the man-heavy looks that the Browns throw out there.
It’s a weird three-game stretch for the Packers, starting the year off with all of these man-heavy teams at the beginning of the regular season, but things should change quickly in Week 4, when they play the zone-exclusive Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
