Windy City Gridiron
Earlier this year, I took a look at Caleb’s 2024 Passer Rating. That article built up to this cool chart:
Each game above has its own line that starts on the x-axis at the pass attempt number for the season and the y-axis at the Passer Rating for the first pass of that game. The last pass thrown in each individual game represents Williams’s passer rating for that game, while the unbroken black line shows the cumulative Passer Rating from above. As you move to the right, it becomes more difficult for one game to impact the overall cumulative score.
I promised I’d take a look at Caleb’s 2025 as we got going and with four games in the books and a bye week, it seemed like a perfect time to check out his first four games. The lines are color coded by opponent like above, the difference being the orange unbroken line is 2025 cumulative and the unbroken navy blue is the 2024 cumulative through four games. Note that the 2025 cumulative and game one completely overlap as the season equaled the first game.
I’ve also added a data label of the Passer Rating at the end of each game and the cumulative passer rating at the end of game 4 for both cumulative lines. Caleb’s 2025 Passer Rating after four games is significantly higher than it was at this point last year. Interestingly enough, he’s thrown slightly fewer passes through four games compared to 2024, despite the running game being stuck in the mud.
Caleb’s Passer Rating sits above the league average mark. If we were breaking it down by the individual components, Caleb’s low completion percentage is dragging down the Passer Rating from being in a higher tier. His TD percentage ranks in the top ten with his yards per attempt and interception percentage ranking slightly above league average.
The quarterback stat that does a nice job of incorporating sack data, Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (ANY/A) has Caleb ranked a higher compared to the rest of the league at 11th. He has shown huge improvements in sack avoidance from last year and it is starting to show in many statistics.
We know Passer Rating is not the perfect statistic, but it does measure some important components and it’s good to go pack and track progress against previous performance. From my perspective, it’s just one more sign of a promising start to the Caleb Williams – Ben Johnson area.
