Big Blue View
Every year it seems as though a team makes the leap from the basement of their division to the penthouse.
The New York Giants are a prime candidate to make the same leap from 2025 to 2026 as the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears did from 2024 to 2025 — at least according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Of the eight teams to finish last in their respective division, ESPN gives the Giants the third-best odds to win their division in 2026.
2025 record: 4-13
Odds of winning division: 11.6% (third in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 22% (25th in NFL)The Giants got to take two highly skilled players in the top 10 of the 2026 draft. They have wideout Malik Nabers, their best target on offense, coming back from a knee injury that cost him most of last season. They’re also getting back running back Cam Skattebo, who was an exciting part of the offense until a midseason ankle injury. And they’ve added a good amount of veteran talent to improve the defense, including linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and linemen Shelby Harris and DJ Reader.
The Giants also have a new coaching staff, led by John Harbaugh. New York fans are hoping Harbaugh’s strong track record in Baltimore means he’ll turn things around quickly.
This is all well and good, but of course the biggest reason why the Giants might win their division would be QB Jaxson Dart making huge second-year improvements. It worked for the Bears and Patriots last season, so it could work for the Giants this season. Dart was already a surprising 17th in QBR (57.5) among qualifying QBs in 2025, thanks in part to his value as a runner. You can’t expect him to suddenly become a top-10 quarterback, but it’s possible, especially with Nabers back to catch his passes.
The Giants have finished last in the NFC East in each of the last two years, similar to both the Patriots and Bears who were in last place in their respective divisions in 2023 and 2024 prior to their leap.
Unlike the Patriots, the Giants have the relative misfortune of playing in a division that could be highly competitive in 2026. The Eagles are just a season removed from winning the Super Bowl and the Commanders from playing for the NFC Championship. The Cowboys, meanwhile, always have a potent offense and have sunk considerable resources into rebuilding their defense.
However, there’s a good argument that the Giants have (significantly) underperformed their talent level in recent years.
There’s a good argument that the Giants probably should have finished as an eight or even nine-win team last year despite a brutal schedule. And considering one of those “shoulda-been” wins would have been over the Cowboys, the Giants would have finished with the second-best record in their division by two or three games. They face a schedule that looks to be easier this year, at least on...
