New England Patriots - NESN.com
Sunday’s game between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers is too close for ESPN’s projection model to call.
ESPN Analytics is split nearly evenly down the middle in forecasting the Week 3 showdown at Gillette Stadium. The network’s Matchup Predictor gave each team a 49.8 percent win probability on Friday.
The math shifted slightly that afternoon. New England now has a microscopic 50.0 percent edge over Pittsburgh’s 49.6 percent as of this writing,
Despite New England’s home-field advantage, Pittsburgh is favored by 1.5 points on ESPN Bet and DraftKings Sportsbook. Perhaps the battle is even tighter than that narrow spread indicates.
Each AFC squad enters Sunday with a 1-1 record after a roller-coaster start to the 2025 season. While the Patriots followed a Week 1 loss with a 33-27 win over the Miami Dolphins, the Steelers stumbled against the Seattle Seahawks after defeating the New York Jets in a wild season-opening shootout.
If the first two weeks are any indicator, points won’t be hard to find this Sunday.
Pittsburgh has yielded more than 30 points in consecutive games after doing so twice last season. Meanwhile, New England’s secondary has struggled without star cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who’s questionable to make his season debut in Week 3.
Each offense may follow a different blueprint. The Patriots have allowed an NFL-worst 315.0 passing yards per game, and the Steelers have surrendered the fifth-most rushing yards per contest (149.5).
Sunday’s game between the Patriots and Steelers starts at 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
