New England Patriots - NESN.com
The New England Patriots will seek their ninth straight win when they oppose the 3-7 Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Despite the vast record discrepancy, an ESPN projection model suggests the matchup is closer than it appears.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives the Patriots a 52.5 percent chance to defeat the Bengals in Week 12. That’s a modest number given New England’s -370 moneyline, which implies a 78.7 percent win probability.
The Patriots are currently a seven-point favorite on the road, but that could change if Joe Burrow returns from a toe injury that’s sidelined him since Week 2. The Bengals listed their superstar quarterback as questionable on Friday.
A healthy Burrow certainly affects the game’s outlook, but offense isn’t Cincinnati’s primary concern.
The Bengals have averaged 28.6 points per game since acquiring Joe Flacco, who has accrued 1,453 passing yards and 12 touchdowns in five games. They have just one win to show for it, including a 39-38 loss to the New York Jets and a 47-42 loss to the Chicago Bears.
Cincinnati is the only NFL team allowing more than 400 total yards (418.2) or 30 points (33.4) per game. That anemic unit will play its third straight game without star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson, whom the Bengals ruled out with a hip and pelvis injury.
While the Bengals likely must win their final seven games just to keep their playoff hopes alive, the Patriots are in the pole position to capture the AFC East title and compete for a first-round bye. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) isn’t quite sold yet.
New England ranks a modest 15th in FPI, just five spots above Cincinnati. That explains why the algorithm pegs the Patriots as only a modest favorite over the Bengals.
