Sportsnaut
Last year, the Minnesota Vikings were entering the season with a great amount of risk. They had won 14 games in 2024, the second-most in franchise history. Yet, once the offseason arrived, the Vikings let the QB who helped them get there, Sam Darnold, sign with a new team in free agency.
That decision gave second-year pro J.J. McCarthy the keys to the Corvette, even though he’d never driven the car before. While he led the team to six of the Vikings’ nine wins, the team’s top-10 scoring offense from 2024 was nowhere to be found. Instead, it was the Vikings’ top-10 defense, led by Brian Flores, that kept the ship from sinking.
Seeing how they went from 14 wins down to 9 behind much worse QB play, the Vikings kicked off the offseason knowing they needed more competition at the sport’s most important position. They were linked to a number of potential options, such as a reunion with Kirk Cousins, luring a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers back to the NFC North, or even trading for Mac Jones.
In the end, the Vikings got who was widely perceived to be the best quarterback available when Kyler Murray hand-picked Kevin O’Connell’s team as the one he wanted to join. So, the Vikings seemingly upgraded the QB room by retaining McCarthy, Carson Wentz (for veteran leadership), and adding a two-time Pro Bowl QB, problem solved, right?
Not according to ESPN’s analytics.
Vikings insider Kevin Seifert shared a tweet revealing ESPN’s analytics prediction for the division winner. The Detroit Lions were the favorite to win, with a 38% chance to claim the division crown. Meanwhile, the Vikings are given just a 10% chance to win the NFC North.
That means, out of 100 times, ESPN’s analytics predicted the Vikings would only have a chance to win 10 times out of 100, or 1 out of 10 if that’s easier to stomach. For Vikings fans, it’s likely not easy to stomach.
Chance of winning the NFC North, per ESPN Analytics:
Lions: 38%
Packers: 33%
Bears: 19%
Vikings: 10%— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) July 20, 2026
While the QB room is undoubtedly improved, now the defense has much more to prove after cutting bait with a trio of Pro Bowlers in Jonathan Greenard, Javon Hargrave, and Jonathan Allen. ESPN’s analytics clearly don’t believe coach O’Connell and Flores have what it takes to maximize the potential of this roster.
Related: NFL Analyst Determines Minnesota Vikings Have Just Three Players Worth a First-Round Pick
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