Crossing Broad
As we diagnose the Eagles’ woes and sift through the data, a couple of numbers that jump off the page and slap you across the face ahead of Sunday’s game in Minnesota:
3 and out percentage
3rd down conversion rate
So expect a lot of punting inside of U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday afternoon, beginning at 1 p.m. The teams have combined for 54 punts through 11 games, not coincidentally because J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Jalen Hurts have been sacked 39 times. In Minnesota’s case, they’re 3-2 because they have a very good defense and haven’t exactly played a murderer’s row type of schedule, facing the Bears, Falcons, Browns, Steelers, and Joe Burrow-less Bengals. The Eagles have already had to play the Cowboys, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Rams, Broncos, and Giants.
One of the things killing the Eagles is their early down success percentage. This is defined by Sportradar as a play that gains at least 40% of the yardage required to either move the sticks or score, so in case of 1st and 10, a successful play is one that goes four or more yards. The Birds have a 50% success rate on 1st down, which is 22nd in the NFL, and they have a 48.3% success rate on 2nd down, which is also 22nd.
What happens is that the lack of early success puts them regularly in 3rd and long positions, for instance, 41 of their 75 third down attempts this season have been from 3rd and 7 or longer. Compare that to an efficient team like the Lions, who have 35 of their 3rd down attempts coming between 2 and 6 yards and only 30 attempts at 3rd and 7+.
Pretty simple numbers here. The Eagles keep putting themselves in tough situations because they aren’t doing much on 1st and 2nd down, at least not like they were last season. In 2024, they only had a 19.1% three and out rate, and made opponents go three and out on 22.6% of their possessions. Both of those were top 10 numbers and help explain why they went on that incredible run, all the way to a championship.
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