Crossing Broad
A battle of conflicting identities is set for Week 5 as the undefeated Eagles host the Broncos in a compelling non-conference matchup. The Birds are keeping the main thing the main thing with Jalen Hurts, and have established themselves as the NFL’s most ruthlessly efficient team, scoring 27.0 points per game and converting a perfect 100.0% of their red-zone opportunities into touchdowns. They’re back inside Lincoln Financial Field, where they’ve won their last 13 consecutive games, and looking to maintain their perfect record.
Standing in their way is a Broncos team with a completely different formula for success. Piloted by sophomore quarterback Bo Nix, Denver’s offense has been a yardage machine, churning out an impressive 354.5 total yards per game, though they’re only putting up a league-average points-per-game total.
The game’s outcome could hinge on which team can dictate the style of play. While the Eagles are 4-0, the offense has been incredibly janky at times. Does this one turn into another dogfight, or do the Birds put together that elusive, comprehensive effort?
Odds as of October 4th, 2025, from ESPN Bet.
The betting markets have established the undefeated Eagles as clear home favorites. The -208 moneyline implies a significant chance of victory, which is further supported by historical trends; the Eagles are 17-1 in their last 18 games as a favorite and have won their last 13 contests at home. The normalized, vig-free probability gives the Eagles approximately a 65.0% chance to win, compared to 35.0% for the Broncos.
The spread of -4.5 for Philadelphia is particularly noteworthy given the teams’ recent performances against the number. Denver has struggled mightily to cover, posting a dismal 1-3 record against the spread (ATS) this season and failing to cover in their last five road games. Conversely, the Eagles have been a bettor’s dream, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win.
The betting lines for this contest have seen notable shifts since opening, painting a picture of a classic “sharps vs. public” betting dynamic.
Spread Movement: The point spread opened with the Philadelphia Eagles as -5.5 point favorites at ESPN Bet. However, early and significant money came in on the underdog, pushing the line down to -3.5 before bouncing back to -4.5. This shift towards the Broncos suggests that professional bettors saw value in Denver’s ability to keep the game within the original number, capitalizing on the +5.5. The vig on the Broncos’ side has also increased from a standard -110 to -120, indicating that sportsbooks are now trying to encourage more action on the Eagles to balance their liability.
Moneyline & Total Movement: In a move that contradicts the spread, the moneyline has shifted further in Philadelphia’s favor, moving from an opening of -196 to -208. This suggests that while sharps may have taken the points, the general public is confidently betting on the Eagles to win outright, regardless of the spread. The...
