Crossing Broad
The Eagles are favored for the third time this season against the Commanders. This time around for the NFC Championship Game, the Birds are firmly locked in as a six-point favorite. That’s a two-point jump from the number both regular-season meetings closed at, and to be honest, it’s a rightful jump with the Birds at home against a rookie quarterback in the NFC Championship Game.
Sunday’s over/under sits at 47.5, which is in the middle of where the total closed in the regular season.The Eagles won and covered in their Week 11 win over Washington. The under hit in that game as well. In Week 16, the Commanders won outright as a four-point dog and the over cleared by 20 points, but it’s also worth noting Jalen Hurts was concussed in the first quarter of that game and Kenny Pickett played the majority of the game. The Birds are 2-4 against the spread as a favorite of six or more points, while the Commanders are 2-1 ATS as a dog of six or more points. The total of 47.5 is actually high for the Eagles this season. They are 2-3 to the over in their five games that closed at 47.5 or higher. Washington is more used to higher-scoring games and is 3-3 to the over when the total is 48 or higher.
Now that I’ve gotten the trends out of the way, I’m ready to unleash my biggest take for the NFC Championship Game. A.J. Brown is going off. Like, record-breaking, historic, well over 100-yard performance off. Simply put, the man is due. And if you need a stronger case than that, well, Brown had 13 receptions and 162 receiving yards against the Commanders in the regular season. Washington’s secondary is more wide open than Green Bay’s unit and the weather is expected to be as good as you can get for a mid-January afternoon. The Commanders just gave up 521 total yards to the Lions, and let’s be honest, they should focus first on slowing down Saquon Barkley, who has 296 rushing yards against them this season. Barkley’s rushing-yard prop is over/under 128.5, and while he may well hit that number, it’s hard to justify betting such a high number at such a low price. I’d rather go after Brown’s props of over/under 4.5 receptions and 65.5 receiving yards, because well, the matchup is great and Brown has to go off at some point during the postseason.
As for the other star wide receiver, Terry McLaurin was held to 70 receiving yards in his two games against the Eagles. His receiving-yard prop sits at 64.5. I’d be tempted to take the under on that one, especially if a healthy Quinyon Mitchell is patrolling the secondary. Washington will throw the ball, and if you need Same Game Parlay pieces, I would look into Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz to have 25+ receiving yards. They are Jayden Daniels’ top targets in the short-passing game. I would expect the Eagles to...
