Behind the Steel Curtain
Will the Steelers offense take a big leap in year two under Arthur Smith?
If you’re feeling lucky, DraftKings sportsbook recently released its player props for the 2025 NFL season. Although it may be a bit premature, it could be an opportunistic time to capitalize on bets before adjustments are made, especially considering the Steelers could still add another weapon at either wideout or tight end. Let’s look at some lines, and I’ll give some thoughts on each.
Rodgers started all 17 games for the New York Jets last season and threw 28 TDs, so this may seem like a lock at first glance. Given Arthur Smith’s propensity to run the rock — coupled with the potential that the 41-year-old signal-caller misses a game or two — it’s not as much of a slam dunk as you might think. However, I still lean towards the over as we currently stand.
DraftKings is VERY high on Johnson, and it’s logical to think the rookie could handle the bulk of the carries in the later portion of the season. But I’d be shocked if there was this large of a disparity.
Warren had 511 yards on just 120 totes last season, but in 2023, he blew past this number, as he rushed for 784 yards on 149 rushes. I know he’s had fumbling issues, but the disrespect for Warren has gone too far.
I’d expect he gets closer to 150 rushing attempts, so I love his over. For that reason, I’d take the under on Johnson’s number.
These lines are VERY risky! As of now, Metcalf should absolutely dominate targets, given the lack of depth in the wide receiver room. If this roster were to stay as it is, he would easily eclipse these figures.
However, these will be long shots if Pittsburgh signs a free agent like Amari Cooper or Keenan Allen.
If it’s someone like Gabe Davis, I’d feel more comfortable betting the over.
The correct play is to just avoid it.
A line has not been posted yet for TE Pat Freiermuth, but my guess is it’ll be somewhere around 653, the total he posted in 2024. Rodgers generally hasn’t targeted tight ends at a high rate, but Freiermuth will be one of the most talented he’s had at the position.
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What are your thoughts on these early lines? Let us know in the comments section!
