‘Draft a top-10 QB’ hasn’t worked at all lately

Drake Maye is the only quarterback in the NFL this season who is top-10 in passer rating and was drafted by his current team in the top-20 picks. I’ll say that again for the people who obsess over drafting quarterbacks early every year:

Out of the top-10 quarterbacks in passer rating, Maye is the only one drafted by his current team in the top-20.

Conversely, of the 9 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 5 interceptions this season, 5 of them were drafted by their current team in the top-6.

In 2025, being an early draft pick by your current team increases the odds that you’re having a bad season than it does that you’re having a good season. So as Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff battle out MVP debates (both number one picks, neither of them drafted by their current team), remember these numbers the next time a fanbase pins the hopes of the franchise on an imaginary rookie quarterback picked early in the draft.

In some ways, that’s just a fairy tale that ESPN has been telling you since Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Leaf. The early-pick quarterbacks can be great too, but these days teams are getting more out of castoffs, retreads, and reclamations than phenoms, fantasy dynasty stars, and freak athletes.

Top-10 QBs in passer rating:

• Jared Goff, Lions, 120.6 (traded for Stafford)
• Drake Maye, Patriots, 116.4 (2nd overall pick)
• Sam Darnold, Seahawks, 116 (free agent signing)
• Matthew Stafford, Rams, 109.3 (traded for Goff and 2 first round picks)
• Jalen Hurts, Eagles, 108.9 (2nd round pick)
• Baker Mayfield, Bucs, 108.5 (free agent signing)
• Jordan Love, Packers, 108.1 (26th overall pick, sat for 3 years)
• Dak Prescott, Cowboys, 107.6 (4th round pick)
• Daniel Jones, Colts, 105.9 (free agent signing)
• Aaron Rodgers, Steelers, 105 (free agent signing)

Just this past free agency we saw Darnold, Jones, and Rodgers all sign relatively cheap free agent deals. Darnold’s was the most expensive at $33.5 million per season and even that barely ranks inside the top-20. The only veteran making less than him on a deal longer than 2 years is Mayfield at $33.3 million. As two other QBs in the MVP conversation at midseason, Darnold and Mayfield make the “top-5 pick” obsession look absurd for 2 reasons:

1. Darnold and Mayfield were free agents

2. Darnold and Mayfield were considered busts on the Jets and Browns (and then together on the Panthers)

They represent both the downside to top-3 picks and the upside to free agents. The same goes for former 6th overall pick Daniel Jones, who leads the NFL in success rate and QBR in his first season with the Colts. A team that has improved from 17th in points per game with Anthony Richardson last year (but even less when he was starting over Joe Flacco) to 1st in scoring in 2025.

Does the Jones thing or the Darnold thing have a shelf life? It might! But who...