The Phinsider
Each season, ESPN releases their Football Power Index, or FPI.
FPI measures a team’s true strength on a net points scale, looking at a team’s expected point margin against an average opponent on a neutral field. It accounts for a number of factors, such as win totals, net offense, defense, and special teams rating, home-field advantage, rest differentials, and much more. ESPN then uses these numbers to simulate the season thousands of times, before landing on a final FPI rating. In other words, it’s a very robust index that provides a lot of insight into the NFL’s best and worst teams.
Unfortunately for the Miami Dolphins, they fall into the latter category. In fact, according to FPI, the Dolphins will be the worst team in the NFL in 2026.
They have an FPI rating of -5.8, meaning the Dolphins are expected to lose a game against an average opponent on a neutral field by about 5.8 points. It’s worth noting that heading into last season, the Dolphins were ranked 19th in FPI with a rating of -0.1. However, they ended the season 31st in FPI, with a rating of -9.7. The eventual Super Bowl Champions, the Seattle Seahawks, were ranked two spots below the Dolphins with a rating of -1.4.
Anyhow, ESPN also projects the Dolphins will land the first pick in the 2027 NFL draft, with a 20.1% chance of landing the first overall pick and a 66.3% chance of landing a top-five pick. Though the Jets and Dolphins rank 32nd and 31st in FPI, the Jets have the sixth-easiest schedule while the Dolphins have the third-hardest.
Of course, these ratings certainly will change as the season goes on. New head coach Jeff Hafley is an unknown quantity right now, as is most of Miami’s roster. The lack of historical data and continuity surrounding the Dolphins right now is likely a huge factor in ESPN’s calculations, as most models will not be overly generous in this regard. But for now, until proven otherwise, the Dolphins are projected to be the NFL’s worst team in the 2026.
How many wins do you think the Dolphins will get in 2026? Will the Dolphins land the first pick in 2027? Let us know down below!
