Turf Show Times
Following the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend, there has been a lot of discussion around fourth down decisions and teams opting not to ‘take the points’ and instead going for it in a big spot. That was the case for the Los Angeles Rams when they decided to go for it at the end of the first half against the Carolina Panthers. Leading 17-7, the Rams decided to go for it on 4th-and-3 inside the red zone. Matthew Stafford’s pass fell incomplete and the Panthers went down and scored a touchdown.
It was arguably the turning point in that game as a team with no life up to that point was given a glimpse of hope. That was the case around the NFL on Wild Card Weekend. Teams converted 15 of 29 fourth down attempts and the Chicago Bears with Ben Johnson went for it six times, including two failed attempts that led to touchdowns for the Green Bay Packers.
There is a point when going for it on fourth down becomes reckless. Johnson going for it from his own 32-yard line falls into that category. Dan Campbell going for it three times in the 2023 NFC Championship game may have been reckless. However, the Rams going for it with a 10-point lead and trying to extend their lead to three scores may have been more overzealous than reckless.
One of the biggest issues with these decisions is that the analysis is done in hindsight. A bad result doesn’t necessarily equal a bad decision. Ben Baldwin’s fourth down decision calculator favored a field goal by 0.9 win percentage points. ESPN’s model had it as a slight go by 0.4 percent. It was a decision that didn’t have a clear advantage either way. It’s unclear what model the Rams and Game Management Coordinator Dan Shamash use, but it’s very possible that it leaned ‘go’.
There are so many factors that go into these plays such as the play-calls themselves on offense and defense, as well as player execution. It can be difficult to live with the result when it doesn’t go as hoped, but with these calls, it’s important to separate the actual decision from the result. With the Rams leading 17-7, there may not have been a need to take that risk which is why it may have been overzealous from McVay, but it wasn’t necessarily a bad decision, especially when you consider that Stafford had two open receivers on the play. Had the Rams converted, it’s likely not a talking point this week.
This has been one area in which McVay has evolved the most. From 2017-2024, the Rams were the worst team at going for it when they should. This season has actually been the Rams’ best year in terms of going for it, ranking 11th in total fourth down attempts. They are also 13th in going for it when they should which is a drastic improvement. Again, there’s a line between being too conservative and too reckless. Right...
