Arrowhead Pride
A host of future contracts could hinge on how the next few days play out in Kansas City.
Over the next few days, all eyes will be firmly on the Kansas City Chiefs’ front office as negotiations with franchise-tagged right guard Trey Smith (predictably) go down to the wire. If Smith and the Chiefs do not agree to a long-term deal by 3 p.m. Arrowhead Time on Tuesday, July 15, he will have no choice but to play on the $23.4 million franchise tag tender he signed in March.
Whether or not a long-term deal is finally reached could impact several potential moves general manager Brett Veach may be considering for 2025 and 2026.
While we estimate the Chiefs are currently a comfortable $11.5 million under the 2025 salary cap, the situation for next season appears much more troubling. After giving out more than $100 million in guaranteed money to free agents this spring, the front office will almost certainly have plenty of work to do to remain under the cap — because the contract website Spotrac currently projects the Chiefs to be about $24.6 million over a hypothetical 2026 salary cap of $307 million.
Here are some of the things Veach and his staff now have on their minds.
Smith’s deal is the proverbial elephant in the room. Failing to reach a deal — especially after trading guard Joe Thuney to (apparently) open up room for a new Smith contract — would end the offseason on a sour note.
But a long-term agreement (with most of this year’s earnings paid through a signing bonus) would probably drop his 2025 cap charge from the current $23.4 million to around $7 million or less.
Given the concern about 2026, however, any cap room saved by extending Smith could be rolled into next year — when his high salary would add to an already complicated financial picture.
If the two sides cannot reach an agreement, we probably shouldn’t expect a different outcome between them in 2026. Tagging Smith a second time would require a 20% raise — almost assuring he would hit the open market in free agency.
The unconventional decade-long extension to which the Chiefs signed their quarterback in 2020 has certainly worked out for both parties. Still, years of annual restructures now have the face of the league scheduled to count $78.2 million against the salary cap in 2026 — followed by $74.4 million in 2027.
Veach will certainly not go into the next offseason with a fourth of the team’s salary cap space tied to Mahomes.
Enough years remain on the back end of Mahomes’ contract that Veach can continue using it as a salary cap bank for two more offseasons. But with the leaguewide quarterback market largely settled, it is probably time to start thinking about Mahomes’ next deal, which will almost certainly average over $60 million per season. Whether he will again be willing to accept...
