Pride of Detroit
What a difference a week can make.
After losing to the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving, the Detroit Lions’ season felt lost. At 7-5 with playoff odds somewhere around 25-30 percent, many were already writing the eulogy of the 2025 Detroit Lions. When asked how many of the team’s five remaining game the Lions would win, over 65 percent of our community expected at least two losses—38.3% of you believed they would lose at least three games.
But after a fairly decisive win over the Dallas Cowboys, suddenly everything seems much more optimistic around these parts. It’s understandable, as the Lions’ playoff odds are now around 50 percent and both the offense and (to a lesser extent) the defense showed up in big ways against a red-hot Cowboys teams.
There is still a ton of work to do, including big games against the two teams who currently sit atop the NFC: the Bears and Rams. And with playoff odds still hovering around 50%, I’m curious as to where Lions fans sit on the coin-flip odds. So today’s Question of the Day is:
My answer: Going by the New York Times simulator, any combination of wins and losses that produces a 3-1 record gives the Lions anywhere between a 83 (loss to Bears) and 98 percent (loss to Steelers) chance to make the postseason. So if Detroit can just play above .500 football, they’ll almost certainly make it. A 2-2 record drops Detroit’s playoff odds around the 30-40 percentile, unless one of those losses is to the Bears—in which the odds drop to between 10-20%. You can forget it if the Lions drop three of their last four.
My biggest concern about the schedule is facing a bunch of good defenses. The Rams (fourth), Vikings (11th), and Steelers (12th) all rank in the top third in defensive DVOA, and Detroit has struggled against good defenses this year. Of their five losses, four have come against top-11 DVOA defense (Packers x2, Vikings, Eagles). Those present difficult matchups, so even the games that look “easy” (Vikings, Steelers) could give Detroit some trouble.
In all honesty, I’m not giving them much of a chance against the Rams this week. That’s an extremely well-rounded team that should be able to hit on big plays through the air and has the ability to stop Detroit’s offense in their tracks. That means they’ll likely have to win out after that. The Steelers and Vikings have a chance to slow Detroit’s offense, but both of their offenses are a mess. I still consider those coin flips, because the Lions have lost to the Eagles and Vikings—two teams with huge offensive struggles but a defense that can keep them in the game. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see Detroit drop one of those.
As for the finale against the Bears, I do think that will end up deciding who goes to the playoffs. I actually like the Lions’ chances there,...
