Turf Show Times
Outside of the NFC West title race and the battle for the NFC’s No. 1 seed, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has been in the MVP conversation throughout the season. For much of the year, Stafford has led that discussion, but New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye hasn’t been far behind and has been a primary contender in that race.
However, following a blown 16-point lead against the Seahawks and the results from Week 17, the Rams have been eliminated from the NFC West race and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The only ‘race’ remaining is Stafford’s race for MVP. While those in the Rams fanbase may believe that Stafford is a clear front-runner, it is much closer than some would like to think.
As mentioned, the race for MVP likely comes down to Stafford or Maye. While Josh Allen entered the conversation for a bit, Stafford is -225 to win MVP and Maye is +180. Way behind both is Allen at +10000. Maye leads the NFL in EPA per dropback, passer rating, and yards per attempt.
MVP may be an individual award, but team success certainly plays a role in that conversation. For the first time since 2017, the Patriots won 13 games under Maye and also won the AFC East. With a win and Broncos loss in Week 18, Maye will lead the Patriots to the AFC’s No. 1 seed. However, the big key there is that Maye led his team to a division title.
Contrarily, the Rams cannot win the NFC West. That looms large in any MVP discussion. Since 2000, there have been just four instances of the MVP award being given to a player who did not win their division. Those were Adrian Peterson in 2012, Peyton Manning in 2008, Steve McNair in 2003, and Marshall Faulk in 2000. Manning in 2008 was also the last quarterback to win and not be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the conference.
The 2008 Colts went 12-4, losing the division to the 13-3 Tennessee Titans. Among teams with a winning record, Manning clearly had the better numbers. Manning was the only quarterback in 2008 to throw for 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns to have a winning record. Drew Brees threw for 5,000 yards, but the New Orleans Saints went 8-8 and finished last in the NFC South.
In 2008, Tom Brady tore his ACL and the biggest competition for Manning was Chad Pennington and Phillip Rivers. Pennington led the Dolphins to an 11-5 record and AFC South title, but threw just 19 touchdowns. Rivers had 4,000 yards and 34 touchdowns, but the Chargers won the AFC West title at just 8-8.
The competition for Stafford is much better this year. Even if Maye is Stafford’s biggest competition, he still has over 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns with fewer than 10 interceptions. He’s not having a statistically bad year by any means and he has the Patriots at 13-3.
It’s also hard to say that...
