Pride of Detroit
It’s been a rough start to the year for On Paper, as the Detroit Lions’ games have rarely gone as the statistics have suggested this year. This week, there appears to be a significant statistical advantage between the Lions and the Washington Commanders. But will that result in another upset victory, and will the numbers finally not lie?
Let’s take a closer look at the Lions vs. Commanders Week 10 matchup in our On Paper preview and prediction.
By the basic statistics, you’d never know that the Lions’ offense is actually starting to struggle a bit. They’re second in passer rating for the season (116.5) and sixth in yards per attempt (8.0). But a little bit of a deeper dive highlights what’s not working in the passing game.
For one, their pass protection has struggled immensely as of late. Despite going three straight games without allowing a sack—Chicago, Baltimore, and Cleveland—the Lions now rank 20th in sack rate (6.9%), 16th in pressure rate (33.7%), and 21st in PFF pass blocking grade.
And when you dig into some of the more advanced efficiency metrics, you’re starting to see a dip there, too. Detroit’s passing offense ranks eighth in EPA per dropback and ninth in success rate. In other words, what was a top-five passing attack is beginning to slip out of the top-10.
Now, it’s still a strong unit. Outside of those pass protection metrics, you’d be hard pressed to find the Lions outside of the top half of the league, and most stats still have them in the top-10. But the trajectory is certainly a bit troubling.
And here’s where things align for a bounce-back week for Detroit. The Commanders have allowed all but two opponents to meet or outgain their seasonal averages, and in one of those cases, it was a terrible Russell Wilson-led offense. That leaves just one oddly-impressive game against Justin Herbert and the Chargers… and nothing else.
For the entire season, this has been one of the worst pass defenses in football. They rank:
As always, when you see a slight outlier like that in success rate, it points to explosive plays, and the Commanders have been hemorrhaging them. They’re tied for the most 20+ yard passing plays allowed (34) and tied for the most 40+ yards plays (nine) allowed.
And due to injuries on the defensive front (Dorance Armstrong, Deatrich Wise, Javontae Jean-Baptiste) and secondary (Will Harris, Marshon Lattimore), both the coverage and pass rush for this team has struggled. They rank 31st in PFF team coverage grade (40.2). Their PFF pass rush grade is 18th, and their pressure rate is 13th (34.7%) despite blitzing the 12th-highest rate (27.4%). Armstrong remains the player with the most sacks on the team (5.5) despite the fact that he suffered...
