Pride of Detroit
The Detroit Lions take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game that could have huge implications on the NFC playoff race come January. The Lions have not lost back-to-back games in several years, but the 5-1 Bucs are going to put a tough test to that streak, especially given Detroit’s current injury situation.
Let’s see who has the statistical advantage in our Lions vs. Buccaneers preview and prediction. It’s On Paper: Week 7.
The Lions’ passing attack continues to chug along at a pretty strong rate. Even last week against the Chiefs, when they only mustered 17 points, it wasn’t because of a poor passing attack. Jared Goff was accurate and efficient, as he’s been pretty much all year. For the season, the Lions rank:
Really, the only statistic where the Lions fall behind in the passing game is depth of target. Detroit is averaging just 6.7 intended yards per pass attempt, which ranks 29th in the NFL. However, this doesn’t show they are inefficient. It simply shows they prefer the get their yardage by dinking and dunking. Last year, the Lions averaged just 6.3 intended yards per pass attempt and produced the No. 1 offense in football.
Pass protection isn’t quite up to the Lions’ standards, though. Detroit ranks just 16th in pass blocking PFF grade (59.2), 17th in ESPN’s pass block win rate, and 11th in pressure rate allowed (31.4%). Hopefully, this week’s expected return of left tackle Taylor Decker can help, but it’s worth noting that most of their pressure is coming from the interior, where right guard Tate Ratledge (12) and left guard Christian Mahogany (10) have given up the most pressures on the team, per PFF.
Surprisingly, the Buccaneers’ defense has only held one opponent significantly below their season-long passer rating average. Looking at the average percentage difference in both yardage and passer rating, opposing offenses can expect to produce slightly above-average statistics against Tampa, and it’s not exactly easy to find out why.
When looking at the same statistics as the Lions’ passing offense, the stats are equally below-average:
But here’s where it gets weird: the Bucs’ pass rush and coverage both grade out quite well. They rank eighth in pass rush win rate and 12th in PFF pass rush grade. When it comes to PFF’s coverage grade, Tampa ranks a respectable 14th. So where are they failing?
That’s where the good news comes in. Tampa ranks 27th in EPA per dropback on passes under 10 air yards. They’ve allowed the fifth most yards after the catch on such plays. They’re particularly bad at covering tight ends and running backs,...
