Pride of Detroit
The Detroit Lions cannot wait any longer. If they’re going to make a serious Super Bowl push, it has to start this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. For any realistic chance to make the playoffs, the Lions need to win out, and even that doesn’t guarantee them a spot in the postseason.
The Steelers, too, are trying to convince people they are worthy playoff contenders. While they control their own destiny for the AFC North title, their entire season has been underwhelming.
So how do the two teams match up? Who has the statistical advantages in each aspect of the game? Let’s break it down in our Lions vs. Steelers preview and prediction: On Paper.
The Lions’ passing attack continues to show why they’re one of the best in football, and Jared Goff is on a bit of a hot streak. While much of their production this year has been against poor defenses, they’ve produced high numbers against the Packers and Rams in recent weeks, two of the better defenses in the league. This is especially encouraging given the loss of Sam LaPorta over a month ago.
For the season, the Lions rank:
By just about all efficiency metrics, this is a top-10 pass offense that is bordering on a top-five ranking. And speaking of top-five, the Lions’ duo of Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown are making a case for one of the best receiving duos in football. In the past six weeks alone, they both are producing ridiculous numbers:
And the crazy thing is that includes a 0-yard game for both players over that span.
As it has been for the entire season, the most suspect unit is the offensive line and pass protection. Detroit ranks 22nd in PFF pass blocking grade, 29th in pass block win rate, 19th in pressure rate allowed (per NFL Pro), and 32nd in time to pressure allowed. The good news is the Lions get the ball out quick (2.72 seconds, fifth in NFL), which mitigates some of that damage.
The Steelers give up a ton of yardage, as evidenced by the chart above, but their defensive efficiency is much better. Only two quarterbacks over the past two months have significantly outperformed their passer rating average when playing the Steelers. For the season, this pass defense has hung around average in most metrics:
Where they typically thrive is in their pass rush. They rank third in PFF pass rush grade, fourth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate, 25th in pressure rate (NFL Pro), but fourth in time to...
