Pride of Detroit
The Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles face off on Sunday night in a game that is bound to have huge implications for the NFC playoff race. The Eagles currently hold the top seed in the conference, and with such a comfortable lead in the NFC East, their playoff hopes are not in doubt. It’s just a matter of which seed they’ll earn at this point.
The Lions, on the other hand, hold the conference’s third spot and are in a very tight divisional race. This game, without a doubt, has more stakes for the Lions, but who has the statistical edge? Let’s find out in our Lions vs. Eagles On Paper preview and prediction.
The Lions offense had a huge bounce-back game last week against the Commanders, and while it may not seem like a huge change based on the chart, a deeper dive into the statistics show just how much that game even improved their season-long rankings. Here’s where they stand now compared to last week:
Now, granted that came against a poor Commanders defense (27th in pass defense DVOA). Still, it was relieving to see the Lions passing attack operate in a way that looked familiar.
The biggest question is whether the Lions’ offensive line can repeat their sack-less performance. While Jared Goff has avoided a single sack in four of nine games this year, the pass protection has been inconsistent, at best. Detroit ranks 20th in PFF pass blocking grade, 27th in ESPN’s pass block win rate, 17th in pressure rate, and 13th in sack rate.
Goff could also be without one of his go-to options on third down, with tight end Sam LaPorta missing two practices with a back injury. Though it’s worth pointing out that the Eagles currently rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA against tight ends, so he has a tough matchup anyways. The better matchup for Detroit is utilizing Jahmyr Gibbs in the passing game, where the Eagles rank 29th in defensive DVOA against running backs. Last week, Gibbs found some success in that area, catching three passes for 30 yards and a touchdown.
This is a stunningly good chart for the Eagles’ pass defense. And when you look closer, you see how Philly has shut down the likes of Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Baker Mayfield—just in the first four weeks of the season. They’ve only allowed over 250 passing yards twice, and only allowed a passer rating above 90 twice all year.
I’m fully-convinced this is not only a top-10 pass defense, but likely a top-five. Here’s where they rank in some other statistical categories:
