Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants preview, prediction: On Paper

The Detroit Lions are trying to get back on track and stay in the NFC North race after a disappointing loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. This week, the 2-9 New York Giants are in town, and despite their record, they have been described as scrappy and “better than their record.”

Are the Lions on upset alert this week, or are they still the statistical favorite that the -10.5 line in this game suggests. Let’s preview Lions vs. Giants and make a prediction.

It’s On Paper time!

Lions pass offense (9th in DVOA) vs. Giants pass defense (20th)

Jared Goff suffered his worst game of the season last week against a smothering Eagles pass defense. That wasn’t all that unexpected, give how much Philly has stymied even the best quarterbacks in the league. Still, it was disheartening to see Goff struggle, and the Lions offensive line seem overwhelmed again.

Let’s start with the offensive line, where concerns are high about how much of a step back that unit has taken in 2025. The pass protection stats this year, admittedly, aren’t great.

• 24th in PFF’s team pass blocking grade (59.8)
• 26th in ESPN’s pass block win rate (56%)
• 21st in pressure rate allowed (35.5%)
• 14th in sack rate (6.0%)

Detroit’s saving grace when it comes to avoiding sacks is the fact that Lions quarterbacks get rid of the football faster (2.49 seconds) than any other team. They heavily rely on their receivers to get yards after the catch, and the ydo. The Lions rank second in YAC (1,495 yards).

And for all the pass protection issues, the Lions’ pass offense still operates pretty well. They rank:

• Third in passer rating (111.1)
• Fifth in yards per attempt (8.0)
• Eighth in dropback EPA (0.188)
• Eighth in success rate (50.7%)

By the looks of this chart, the Giants sport a pretty average pass defense, maybe a bit below average. They’ve been on a bit of a concerning trend, though, allowing a passer rating above 115 in three of their last four games, despite holding each of those opponents below 225 net passing yards. Overall, the Giants rank slightly below average in the most significant efficiency metrics:

• 22nd in passer rating (96.6)
• 13th in yards per attempt (6.9)
• 23rd in dropback EPA (0.148)
• 19th in success rate (47.9%)

But as many of you likely know, their pass rush is what to really be concerned about. Brian Burns ranks second in the NFL with 13 sacks, and rookie Abdul Carter has been disruptive despite only having 0.5 sacks on the year. I know that sounds weird, but let’s compare some non-sack stats for Burns and Carter:

• Burns: 17% pass rush win rate (14th in NFL)
• Carter: 17% pass rush win rate (15th in NFL)
• Burns: 37 pressures (t-18th)
• Carter: 25 pressures (t-27th)

And let us not forget Dexter Lawrence in the middle. While he only has 22 pressures (t-27th among...