Pride of Detroit
Most Detroit Lions fans this week can probably relate to feeling like an angry elf with the team’s floundering season. The unraveling has been defined less by one collapse than by a steady accumulation of them. Each loss has felt heavier than the last, often coming in ways that raise new questions rather than offering answers. Last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers marked the second time this season—along with the earlier defeat to the Minnesota Vikings—that Detroit lost at home as a touchdown-plus favorite. Those kinds of results have taken a visible toll.
This Christmas Day matchup looks far different than it did a year ago, when these teams met in Week 18 on “Sunday Night Football” with the NFC’s No. 1 seed at stake. Instead, both teams hover around .500 with postseason hopes all but dashed and pranced. It’s gone from Clark Griswold dreaming of using his year-end bonus to build a backyard pool to his boss Frank handing out Jelly of the Month Club memberships instead. Minnesota enters just one game behind Detroit in the standings and is expected to start rookie quarterback Max Brosmer, while being without key contributors on the injured reserve with Christian Darrisaw, Jonathan Greenard, and Josh Metellus, as well as a handful of other players potentially sidelined. Even so, the Lions are favored by more than a touchdown despite the Vikings riding a three-game winning streak.
For Lions fans hoping to avoid another lump of coal, Detroit will need to reclaim an edge that’s been missing lately—particularly on the coaching and schematic fronts. With Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores having already had Lions coaches’ number earlier in the season, If the Lions are going to flip that script, two rushing-related statistical matchups stand out as essential.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference.
Kevin O’Connell’s offense—a product of the Shanahan-McVay tree—leans heavily on under-center zone concepts in the run game. While Minnesota has mixed in more gap schemes this season when Jordan Mason is on the field, that approach hinges on his availability. With Mason already declared out, the Vikings must lean on Aaron Jones, who is far more comfortable in zone-based rushing.
Minnesota ranks 11th in the NFL with 86 outside-zone carries this season. Jones has logged 35 outside-zone rushes for 155 yards (4.4 YPC) and another 32 inside-zone carries for 113 yards (3.5 YPC). That profile presents a clear “crapper’s full” stress test for a Lions defense that has struggled badly against zone runs over the past month.
From Weeks 13–16, opposing backs (and tight ends) repeatedly gashed Detroit on inside and outside zone concepts:
