Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings preview, prediction: On Paper

The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings face off in a game that has disappointingly low stakes. But On Paper lives on. I’ve previewed more than my fair share of “meaningless” football games, and I’m not going to stop now, despite Detroit’s playoff odds nearing astronomical and the NFL trying to ruin the holiday season.

That said, this will be a slightly abridged version of On Paper, because I’m more than aware that many of you simply don’t care right now.

With that out of the way, here is our Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings statistical breakdown, preview, and prediction.

Lions pass offense (6th) vs. Vikings pass defense (5th)

If there’s one thing that should keep you optimistic about the Lions moving forward, it’s that their passing offense remains quite efficient, despite the recent loss of Sam LaPorta, the constant shuffling of the offensive line, and some serious struggles in the run game. Even against some strong defenses in recent weeks, the Lions have found some comfort moving the ball through the air.

For the season, they rank:

• Second in passer rating (109.4)
• Fifth in yards per attempt (7.9)
• Sixth in dropback EPA (0.187)
• Ninth in dropback success rate (48.7%)

Uh oh.

The Vikings’ pass defense is on an absolute tear right now, and it really started with their last game against the Lions. The return of edge defender Andrew Van Ginkel has been a huge help, but it also just seems like Minnesota has settled in very nicely.

For the season, they rank:

• Ninth in passer rating (88.2)
• 15th in yards per attempt (6.9)
• Third in dropback EPA (-0.058)
• Fourth in dropback success rate (42.6%)

But if we limit that to how they’ve performed since Week 10, they rank:

• Second in passer rating (68.2)
• Fifth in dropback EPA (-0.126)
• Eighth in dropback success rate (41.3%)

While the rankings have moved both up and down, the figures on each of those statistics have drastically improved recently. That’s trouble.

It’s worth noting the Vikings recently lost their best pass rusher in Jonathan Greenard, but he only had 3.0 of the Vikings’ 40 sacks (10th in the NFL) this season.

Player to watch: Van Ginkel. In just 10 games, Van Ginkel has 5.5 sacks, eight pass breakups, and one interception. In the previous matchups against the Lions, he has been an absolute terror for Detroit.

Advantage: Draw. This is the only strength vs. strength matchup of the game, and I can see it going either way. In the past, Jared Goff has been very good against Brian Flores’ defense, but the 2025 matchup was a lot more uneven than the stats suggest, and it brings into question whether Goff has been the key to producing against Flores or if it was a guy like Frank Ragnow (or Ben Johnson) all along.

Lions run offense (7th) vs. Vikings run defense (15th)

All year, I have been warning that the Lions’ lack...