Pride of Detroit
The Detroit Lions are fresh off the bye week. The Minnesota Vikings had a little mini-bye after a Thursday night thrashing. Both teams are entering Week 9 with a little bit a rest and a few more players ready for action.
But looking around the sports universe this week, it doesn’t seem like many are expecting a competitive game between the 5-2 Lions and the 3-4 Vikings. Detroit is currently favored by 8.5 points, per FanDuel, and most of the expert picks rolling in have the Lions by a comfortable margin.
Is that fair? Is that what the statistics suggest? Let’s find out in our Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings On Paper preview.
While the Lions aren’t putting up a ton of yardage in the passing game, their efficiency metrics still remain quite strong. They’ve only been held below the opposing defense’s passer rating average twice this year, and one was the disastrous start to the season.
Overall, this remains a top-10 passing attack that is bordering on a top-five unit. They rank:
For all the bellyaching about third downs and failure to get Jameson Williams the ball this week, a bit of perspective is needed here. Detroit is still a very efficient passing offense.
If there’s anything that needs to be talked about more, it’s pass protection. An injured Taylor Decker and a pair of young guards have left the Lions a little more vulnerable to pressure than in previous years. Their PFF team pass blocking grade has dropped from 69.3 last year to 62.4. Pressure percentage depends on what data set you’re using.
Per Pro-Football-Reference:
2024: 21.0% (13th)
2025: 24.4% (28th)
Per NFL Pro:
2024: 33.5% (15th)
2025: 31.1% (12th)
Based on my own eye test, the PFR stats seem more in line with what I’m seeing.
Regardless, the Lions’ passing attack is a force to be reckoned with, and as the offensive line gets more time on task, it’s reasonable to believe the pass protection will improve.
The Vikings defense has been the inverse of the Lions offense. They’ve been great in terms of yardage, but terrible in terms of efficiency—including allowing a perfect passer rating to Jalen Hurts just a couple weeks back. Those passer rating figures mostly match other efficiency metrics… but not all of them:
With a strong EPA and an above average success rate, there’s more than meets the eye here. For one, a high EPA suggests they can create a lot of negative plays for the offense. We see that with their sixth-highest sack rate in the NFL (8.8%), but their takeaways on the season (eight) is right in the middle of...
