Pride of Detroit
Two NFC contenders of the past few seasons meet on another collision course as the Lions travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams. Detroit is fighting for its playoff life, while Los Angeles is battling for the 1-seed and a first-round bye in a loaded conference. And thanks to the quarterback Yankee swap and the Lions poaching Brad Holmes and Ray Agnew from the Rams’ front office, these two franchises now share several identity traits.
The Lions handled Sean McVay’s Rams—as favorites—in their two epic recent meetings: the 2023 Wild Card game and the 2024 season opener. Both were tightly contested, down-to-the-wire finishes. This time, though, Detroit may have to search for thinner margins, more reminiscent of their 2021 matchup when Dan Campbell’s first Lions team ran a fake punt and recovered an onside kick to storm out to a 10–0 lead over the eventual Super Bowl champions. Detroit enters Week 15 as six-point underdogs—their largest number under Campbell since the 2023 NFC Championship Game, their largest regular-season figure since 2022, and their first time as more than 4.5-point dogs in the last two seasons.
The Lions now face the MVP favorite, former 12-year franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford, without defensive backs Terrion Arnold, Brian Branch, and Kerby Joseph—all of whom may soon land on injured reserve (with Arnold already there). Kelvin Sheppard’s unit, with a few extra days to prepare, will need to throw the kitchen sink at this Rams offense, while Detroit’s offense must rise to the moment to stay competitive on the road against the NFL’s betting favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
This preview dives into four key statistical matchups to determine the game’s outcome.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference.
Much of the recent narrative surrounding this matchup—and the Rams’ offense—has centered on Sean McVay’s increasingly unique deployment of 13 personnel. Once synonymous with an almost exclusive reliance on 11 personnel, McVay has undergone a clear metamorphosis, becoming far more versatile and, like the Lions, adept at marrying both zone and gap run schemes from heavier looks.
Since Tyler Higbee’s injury in Week 11 against the Seahawks, the Rams’ usage of three tight end formations has spiked. From Weeks 1–11, Los Angeles already led the league with an 18.5% 13-personnel rate. From Weeks 12–14, that number ballooned to a league-leading 31.8%.
Los Angeles Rams’ offense — 13 personnel (Weeks 12–14, min. 5 snaps):
The Rams have leaned heavily—and effectively—on groupings featuring Davante Adams (or Puka Nacua), Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, Terrance Ferguson, and either Kyren Williams or the recently blossoming Blake Corum. Despite the heavier personnel, Los Angeles has remained multi-faceted when deploying it, operating with a 61% run rate and 39% pass rate outside of garbage time.
Brian Branch would have been an ideal chess piece to deploy...
