Pride of Detroit
The Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams face off in yet another critical NFC matchup. The Rams are fighting for the No. 1 seed in the conference, while Detroit is scrambling to just get into the postseason.
While the Lions need this game more, the Rams have been playing better football recently. But is the matchup as lopsided as it may seem? Let’s take a statistical look at the matchup in our Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams “On Paper” preview and prediction.
The Detroit Lions passing attack remains one of the best in the league, and they’re trending in the right direction, too. Jared Goff has put together back-to-back strong performances against a good Packers’ defense and a Cowboys team that was showing improvement on that side of the ball.
The fact remains that by most statistical measures, this is a top-10 passing attack that is bordering on top-five:
Protection remains the biggest issue with this unit. Jared Goff has already been sacked 27 times (t-11th most), which is just eight off from his career high (35 in 2021). Detroit ranks just 22nd in pass-blocking PFF grade, 19th in pressure rate allowed, 30th in pass-block win rate, and are allowing the quickest time to pressure in the league.
Still, they managed to handle that pretty well over the last two weeks, despite dealing with an injured interior offensive line and a couple of strong pass rushes. Part of the way they counteract that is by getting rid of the ball faster than everyone but two teams (2.70 time to throw), and relying on their playmakers to create yardage with the ball in their hands (first in YAC).
This is one of the more impressive pass defenses in football. They’ve allowed just four teams to reach a passer rating of 85 or above all season. Just about every metric shows this pass defense as a top-10 unit in football.
I’m always intrigued when a team has a lower success rate than the rest of their stats suggest. Typically that means they are good at avoiding big plays and creating a lot of turnovers/sacks, but could be dinked and dunked to death.
That’s exactly the case for the Rams. LA ranks t-sixth in sacks (36), sixth in interceptions (13), and have given up the third-fewest passing plays of 20+ yards (29). By comparison, the Lions’ defense (31st) has allowed 47 passing plays of 20+ yards.
The way to beat this Rams’ defense is with the short passing game. On passes under 10 air yards, the Rams rank 23rd in yards allowed per game, 11th in EPA/pass, and...
